1. Dow set to add to Wednesday’s record despite Capitol turmoil
U.S. stock futures rose Thursday, a day after the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high despite the turmoil at the Capitol. Early Thursday, outgoing President Donald Trump said in a statement there “will be an orderly transition” of power, shortly after Congress confirmed President-elect Joe Biden’s win.
Economists expect an increase in initial jobless claims, when the Labor Department reports its weekly numbers at 8:30 a.m. ET. With the seven-day average of new daily U.S. Covid infections spiking to a record high, first-time filings for unemployment benefits are seen rising by 28,000 to 815,000 for the week ended Jan. 2.
Ahead of Friday’s government employment report, the ADP’s look at December jobs trends at U.S. companies showed a contraction in private-sector positions for the first time since the early days of the coronavirus. Throughout most of the pandemic, the ADP estimates have been below the final government count.
The 10-year Treasury yield remained above 1% on Thursday morning after projected wins for Democrats in both Senate runoff elections in Georgia. Lightening up on bonds, pushing prices down and yields up, investors bought riskier assets like stocks and bitcoin.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency smashed through the $38,000 mark to hit a record high on Thursday as it continued its massive rally. Bitcoin has been up about 29% in the first days of 2021 and is up 380% over the past 12 months.
3. Congress confirms Biden as next president
Congress early Thursday confirmed the Electoral College vote for Biden, a day after Trump supporters breached the Capitol in a chaotic effort to avoid the formal recognition that the president lost the election. Shortly after the confirmation, White House spokesman Dan Scavino tweeted Trump’s statement, which promised “an orderly transition on January 20th,” the day of Biden’s inauguration, but also perpetuated the baseless claim that he actually won.
Congress’ process of counting Electoral College votes was interrupted Wednesday afternoon when rioters stormed the U.S. Capitol building. A woman who was among the invaders was shot and killed by Capitol Police. Three other people died from medical emergencies.
4. U.S. trade group asks Pence to ‘seriously consider’ invoking 25th Amendment
The National Association of Manufacturers, a trade organization representing 14,000 U.S. companies, called on Vice President Mike Pence to “seriously consider” invoking the 25th Amendment of the Constitution to remove Trump from office. Jay Timmons, CEO of the manufacturers group, is a former executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Two Democratic U.S. representatives worked on a letter to Pence requesting he invoke the amendment.
Members of Trump’s Cabinet issued harsh rebukes of the violence that unfolded at the Capitol. The officials, however, stopped short of criticizing the president, who had urged his supporters to take action at a pro-Trump rally Wednesday morning.
An administration official confirmed to CNBC’s Eamon Javers that National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien and Deputy National Security Advisor Matthew Pottinger are considering resigning over the insurrection. Stephanie Grisham, chief of staff for first lady Melania Trump, and Sarah Matthews, White House deputy press secretary, both resigned Wednesday.
Mick Mulvaney, Trump’s former chief of staff, announced on CNBC on Thursday he is resigning as special envoy to Northern Ireland.
5. Democrats win the majority in the Senate
During the Capitol siege, Democrat Jon Ossoff was projected as the winner of the second of two Senate runoff elections Tuesday in Georgia. The defeat of Republican David Perdue, whose Senate term expired Sunday, coupled with Democrat Raphael Warnock’s projected victory over Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, splits the 100 Senate right down the middle. However, Democrats take over the majority as Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would be the tie-breaking vote. After Biden’s inauguration, Democrats will control the Senate, House and the White House.
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) – The housewares retailer reported quarterly profit of 8 cents per share, short of the 19 cents a share consensus estimate. Revenue also fell short of forecasts, hurt by a steep drop in store traffic and higher freight costs, among other factors. Shares dropped 12.5% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
Walgreens (WBA) – The drugstore operator beat estimates by 19 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of $1.22 per share. Revenue also exceeded Wall Street projections. Walgreens said the business environment remains challenging, but it is maintaining its prior fiscal 2021 forecast. The shares added 3% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
Conagra (CAG) – The food producer reported quarterly profit of 81 cents per share, 8 cents a share above estimates. Revenue was in line with Wall Street forecasts. It also forecast organic sales growth of 6% to 8% for the current quarter, as stay-at-home consumers continue to stoke demand for its frozen dinners and other products. The stock fell slightly in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
Constellation Brands (STZ) – The spirits producer earned $3.09 per share for its latest quarter, compared to a consensus estimate of $2.39 a share. Revenue also topped estimates and the company authorized a new $2 billion share repurchase program. The shares added 2.4% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
CureVac (CVAC) – CureVac struck an alliance deal with drugmaker Bayer, aimed at helping the German biotech firm gain regulatory approval for its Covid-19 vaccine as well as distribute vaccine doses. The stock jumped 15% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
DXC Technology (DXC) – The IT consulting firm is the target of a more than $10 billion takeover bid from French rival Atos, according to two sources with knowledge of the matter who spoke to Reuters. A formal approach is said to have been made, with discussions still at a preliminary stage. The stock added 8% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) – Bank of America Securities upgraded the bank to “buy” from “neutral,” calling it “best-in-class” in what will likely be a strong 2021 for banks. The stock added 1.9% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
Nvidia (NVDA) – The chipmaker’s stock was added to Citi’s “Catalyst Watch” list, with Citi expecting Nvidia shares to emerge from recent underperformance coming out of next week’s Consumer Electronics Show. The stock rose 2% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
Alibaba (BABA) – The China e-commerce giant and Tencent Holdings could be added to a U.S. blacklist by the White House, according to multiple reports. Many consider such a ban unlikely, however, given that the Chinese firms are widely held by U.S. investors.
Twitter (TWTR), Facebook (FB) – Twitter and Facebook temporarily locked President Donald Trump’s accounts and removed some of his posts, hoping to quell further violence in Washington following yesterday’s assault on Capitol Hill.
MGM Resorts (MGM) – The casino operator was urged by shareholder Snow Lake Capital to sell 20% of its China business to a strategic partner. Snow Lake owns 7.5% of MGM China and said such a move would give MGM financial flexibility.
Costco (COST) – The warehouse retailer reported a 12% jump in December sales compared to a year earlier, helped by increased sales of frozen foods and liquor. Comparable store sales were up 10.7%.
Baidu (BIDU) – Baidu has chosen Goldman Sachs (GS) and CLSA for its planned Hong Kong listing, according to a Bloomberg report. The offering by the China-based search engine could raise at least $3.5 billion.
T-Mobile US (TMUS) – The mobile service provider added 824,000 postpaid phone subscribers during the fourth quarter, bring its 2020 total to 5.5 million.
1. Dow set to add to Wednesday’s record despite Capitol turmoil
U.S. stock futures rose Thursday, a day after the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high despite the turmoil at the Capitol. Early Thursday, outgoing President Donald Trump said in a statement there “will be an orderly transition” of power, shortly after Congress confirmed President-elect Joe Biden’s win.
Economists expect an increase in initial jobless claims, when the Labor Department reports its weekly numbers at 8:30 a.m. ET. With the seven-day average of new daily U.S. Covid infections spiking to a record high, first-time filings for unemployment benefits are seen rising by 28,000 to 815,000 for the week ended Jan. 2.
Ahead of Friday’s government employment report, the ADP’s look at December jobs trends at U.S. companies showed a contraction in private-sector positions for the first time since the early days of the coronavirus. Throughout most of the pandemic, the ADP estimates have been below the final government count.
The 10-year Treasury yield remained above 1% on Thursday morning after projected wins for Democrats in both Senate runoff elections in Georgia. Lightening up on bonds, pushing prices down and yields up, investors bought riskier assets like stocks and bitcoin.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency smashed through the $38,000 mark to hit a record high on Thursday as it continued its massive rally. Bitcoin has been up about 29% in the first days of 2021 and is up 380% over the past 12 months.
3. Congress confirms Biden as next president
Congress early Thursday confirmed the Electoral College vote for Biden, a day after Trump supporters breached the Capitol in a chaotic effort to avoid the formal recognition that the president lost the election. Shortly after the confirmation, White House spokesman Dan Scavino tweeted Trump’s statement, which promised “an orderly transition on January 20th,” the day of Biden’s inauguration, but also perpetuated the baseless claim that he actually won.
Congress’ process of counting Electoral College votes was interrupted Wednesday afternoon when rioters stormed the U.S. Capitol building. A woman who was among the invaders was shot and killed by Capitol Police. Three other people died from medical emergencies.
4. U.S. trade group asks Pence to ‘seriously consider’ invoking 25th Amendment
The National Association of Manufacturers, a trade organization representing 14,000 U.S. companies, called on Vice President Mike Pence to “seriously consider” invoking the 25th Amendment of the Constitution to remove Trump from office. Jay Timmons, CEO of the manufacturers group, is a former executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Two Democratic U.S. representatives worked on a letter to Pence requesting he invoke the amendment.
Members of Trump’s Cabinet issued harsh rebukes of the violence that unfolded at the Capitol. The officials, however, stopped short of criticizing the president, who had urged his supporters to take action at a pro-Trump rally Wednesday morning.
An administration official confirmed to CNBC’s Eamon Javers that National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien and Deputy National Security Advisor Matthew Pottinger are considering resigning over the insurrection. Stephanie Grisham, chief of staff for first lady Melania Trump, and Sarah Matthews, White House deputy press secretary, both resigned Wednesday.
Mick Mulvaney, Trump’s former chief of staff, announced on CNBC on Thursday he is resigning as special envoy to Northern Ireland.
5. Democrats win the majority in the Senate
During the Capitol siege, Democrat Jon Ossoff was projected as the winner of the second of two Senate runoff elections Tuesday in Georgia. The defeat of Republican David Perdue, whose Senate term expired Sunday, coupled with Democrat Raphael Warnock’s projected victory over Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, splits the 100 Senate right down the middle. However, Democrats take over the majority as Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would be the tie-breaking vote. After Biden’s inauguration, Democrats will control the Senate, House and the White House.
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) – The housewares retailer reported quarterly profit of 8 cents per share, short of the 19 cents a share consensus estimate. Revenue also fell short of forecasts, hurt by a steep drop in store traffic and higher freight costs, among other factors. Shares dropped 12.5% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
Walgreens (WBA) – The drugstore operator beat estimates by 19 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of $1.22 per share. Revenue also exceeded Wall Street projections. Walgreens said the business environment remains challenging, but it is maintaining its prior fiscal 2021 forecast. The shares added 3% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
Conagra (CAG) – The food producer reported quarterly profit of 81 cents per share, 8 cents a share above estimates. Revenue was in line with Wall Street forecasts. It also forecast organic sales growth of 6% to 8% for the current quarter, as stay-at-home consumers continue to stoke demand for its frozen dinners and other products. The stock fell slightly in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
Constellation Brands (STZ) – The spirits producer earned $3.09 per share for its latest quarter, compared to a consensus estimate of $2.39 a share. Revenue also topped estimates and the company authorized a new $2 billion share repurchase program. The shares added 2.4% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
CureVac (CVAC) – CureVac struck an alliance deal with drugmaker Bayer, aimed at helping the German biotech firm gain regulatory approval for its Covid-19 vaccine as well as distribute vaccine doses. The stock jumped 15% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
DXC Technology (DXC) – The IT consulting firm is the target of a more than $10 billion takeover bid from French rival Atos, according to two sources with knowledge of the matter who spoke to Reuters. A formal approach is said to have been made, with discussions still at a preliminary stage. The stock added 8% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) – Bank of America Securities upgraded the bank to “buy” from “neutral,” calling it “best-in-class” in what will likely be a strong 2021 for banks. The stock added 1.9% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
Nvidia (NVDA) – The chipmaker’s stock was added to Citi’s “Catalyst Watch” list, with Citi expecting Nvidia shares to emerge from recent underperformance coming out of next week’s Consumer Electronics Show. The stock rose 2% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
Alibaba (BABA) – The China e-commerce giant and Tencent Holdings could be added to a U.S. blacklist by the White House, according to multiple reports. Many consider such a ban unlikely, however, given that the Chinese firms are widely held by U.S. investors.
Twitter (TWTR), Facebook (FB) – Twitter and Facebook temporarily locked President Donald Trump’s accounts and removed some of his posts, hoping to quell further violence in Washington following yesterday’s assault on Capitol Hill.
MGM Resorts (MGM) – The casino operator was urged by shareholder Snow Lake Capital to sell 20% of its China business to a strategic partner. Snow Lake owns 7.5% of MGM China and said such a move would give MGM financial flexibility.
Costco (COST) – The warehouse retailer reported a 12% jump in December sales compared to a year earlier, helped by increased sales of frozen foods and liquor. Comparable store sales were up 10.7%.
Baidu (BIDU) – Baidu has chosen Goldman Sachs (GS) and CLSA for its planned Hong Kong listing, according to a Bloomberg report. The offering by the China-based search engine could raise at least $3.5 billion.
T-Mobile US (TMUS) – The mobile service provider added 824,000 postpaid phone subscribers during the fourth quarter, bring its 2020 total to 5.5 million.
1. Dow set to add to Wednesday’s record despite Capitol turmoil
U.S. stock futures rose Thursday, a day after the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high despite the turmoil at the Capitol. Early Thursday, outgoing President Donald Trump said in a statement there “will be an orderly transition” of power, shortly after Congress confirmed President-elect Joe Biden’s win.
Economists expect an increase in initial jobless claims, when the Labor Department reports its weekly numbers at 8:30 a.m. ET. With the seven-day average of new daily U.S. Covid infections spiking to a record high, first-time filings for unemployment benefits are seen rising by 28,000 to 815,000 for the week ended Jan. 2.
Ahead of Friday’s government employment report, the ADP’s look at December jobs trends at U.S. companies showed a contraction in private-sector positions for the first time since the early days of the coronavirus. Throughout most of the pandemic, the ADP estimates have been below the final government count.
The 10-year Treasury yield remained above 1% on Thursday morning after projected wins for Democrats in both Senate runoff elections in Georgia. Lightening up on bonds, pushing prices down and yields up, investors bought riskier assets like stocks and bitcoin.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency smashed through the $38,000 mark to hit a record high on Thursday as it continued its massive rally. Bitcoin has been up about 29% in the first days of 2021 and is up 380% over the past 12 months.
3. Congress confirms Biden as next president
Congress early Thursday confirmed the Electoral College vote for Biden, a day after Trump supporters breached the Capitol in a chaotic effort to avoid the formal recognition that the president lost the election. Shortly after the confirmation, White House spokesman Dan Scavino tweeted Trump’s statement, which promised “an orderly transition on January 20th,” the day of Biden’s inauguration, but also perpetuated the baseless claim that he actually won.
Congress’ process of counting Electoral College votes was interrupted Wednesday afternoon when rioters stormed the U.S. Capitol building. A woman who was among the invaders was shot and killed by Capitol Police. Three other people died from medical emergencies.
4. U.S. trade group asks Pence to ‘seriously consider’ invoking 25th Amendment
The National Association of Manufacturers, a trade organization representing 14,000 U.S. companies, called on Vice President Mike Pence to “seriously consider” invoking the 25th Amendment of the Constitution to remove Trump from office. Jay Timmons, CEO of the manufacturers group, is a former executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Two Democratic U.S. representatives worked on a letter to Pence requesting he invoke the amendment.
Members of Trump’s Cabinet issued harsh rebukes of the violence that unfolded at the Capitol. The officials, however, stopped short of criticizing the president, who had urged his supporters to take action at a pro-Trump rally Wednesday morning.
An administration official confirmed to CNBC’s Eamon Javers that National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien and Deputy National Security Advisor Matthew Pottinger are considering resigning over the insurrection. Stephanie Grisham, chief of staff for first lady Melania Trump, and Sarah Matthews, White House deputy press secretary, both resigned Wednesday.
Mick Mulvaney, Trump’s former chief of staff, announced on CNBC on Thursday he is resigning as special envoy to Northern Ireland.
5. Democrats win the majority in the Senate
During the Capitol siege, Democrat Jon Ossoff was projected as the winner of the second of two Senate runoff elections Tuesday in Georgia. The defeat of Republican David Perdue, whose Senate term expired Sunday, coupled with Democrat Raphael Warnock’s projected victory over Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, splits the 100 Senate right down the middle. However, Democrats take over the majority as Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would be the tie-breaking vote. After Biden’s inauguration, Democrats will control the Senate, House and the White House.
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) – The housewares retailer reported quarterly profit of 8 cents per share, short of the 19 cents a share consensus estimate. Revenue also fell short of forecasts, hurt by a steep drop in store traffic and higher freight costs, among other factors. Shares dropped 12.5% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
Walgreens (WBA) – The drugstore operator beat estimates by 19 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of $1.22 per share. Revenue also exceeded Wall Street projections. Walgreens said the business environment remains challenging, but it is maintaining its prior fiscal 2021 forecast. The shares added 3% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
Conagra (CAG) – The food producer reported quarterly profit of 81 cents per share, 8 cents a share above estimates. Revenue was in line with Wall Street forecasts. It also forecast organic sales growth of 6% to 8% for the current quarter, as stay-at-home consumers continue to stoke demand for its frozen dinners and other products. The stock fell slightly in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
Constellation Brands (STZ) – The spirits producer earned $3.09 per share for its latest quarter, compared to a consensus estimate of $2.39 a share. Revenue also topped estimates and the company authorized a new $2 billion share repurchase program. The shares added 2.4% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
CureVac (CVAC) – CureVac struck an alliance deal with drugmaker Bayer, aimed at helping the German biotech firm gain regulatory approval for its Covid-19 vaccine as well as distribute vaccine doses. The stock jumped 15% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
DXC Technology (DXC) – The IT consulting firm is the target of a more than $10 billion takeover bid from French rival Atos, according to two sources with knowledge of the matter who spoke to Reuters. A formal approach is said to have been made, with discussions still at a preliminary stage. The stock added 8% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) – Bank of America Securities upgraded the bank to “buy” from “neutral,” calling it “best-in-class” in what will likely be a strong 2021 for banks. The stock added 1.9% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
Nvidia (NVDA) – The chipmaker’s stock was added to Citi’s “Catalyst Watch” list, with Citi expecting Nvidia shares to emerge from recent underperformance coming out of next week’s Consumer Electronics Show. The stock rose 2% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
Alibaba (BABA) – The China e-commerce giant and Tencent Holdings could be added to a U.S. blacklist by the White House, according to multiple reports. Many consider such a ban unlikely, however, given that the Chinese firms are widely held by U.S. investors.
Twitter (TWTR), Facebook (FB) – Twitter and Facebook temporarily locked President Donald Trump’s accounts and removed some of his posts, hoping to quell further violence in Washington following yesterday’s assault on Capitol Hill.
MGM Resorts (MGM) – The casino operator was urged by shareholder Snow Lake Capital to sell 20% of its China business to a strategic partner. Snow Lake owns 7.5% of MGM China and said such a move would give MGM financial flexibility.
Costco (COST) – The warehouse retailer reported a 12% jump in December sales compared to a year earlier, helped by increased sales of frozen foods and liquor. Comparable store sales were up 10.7%.
Baidu (BIDU) – Baidu has chosen Goldman Sachs (GS) and CLSA for its planned Hong Kong listing, according to a Bloomberg report. The offering by the China-based search engine could raise at least $3.5 billion.
T-Mobile US (TMUS) – The mobile service provider added 824,000 postpaid phone subscribers during the fourth quarter, bring its 2020 total to 5.5 million.
bigbear0083 has no positions in any stocks mentioned. Reddit, moderators, and the author do not advise making investment decisions based on discussion in these posts. Analysis is not subject to validation and users take action at their own risk. bigbear0083 is an admin at the financial forums Stockaholics.net where this content was originally posted.
DISCUSS!
What's on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at StockMarket?
I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Thursday, January 7th, 2021! :)
1. Dow set to add to Wednesday’s record despite Capitol turmoil
U.S. stock futures rose Thursday, a day after the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high despite the turmoil at the Capitol. Early Thursday, outgoing President Donald Trump said in a statement there “will be an orderly transition” of power, shortly after Congress confirmed President-elect Joe Biden’s win.
Economists expect an increase in initial jobless claims, when the Labor Department reports its weekly numbers at 8:30 a.m. ET. With the seven-day average of new daily U.S. Covid infections spiking to a record high, first-time filings for unemployment benefits are seen rising by 28,000 to 815,000 for the week ended Jan. 2.
Ahead of Friday’s government employment report, the ADP’s look at December jobs trends at U.S. companies showed a contraction in private-sector positions for the first time since the early days of the coronavirus. Throughout most of the pandemic, the ADP estimates have been below the final government count.
The 10-year Treasury yield remained above 1% on Thursday morning after projected wins for Democrats in both Senate runoff elections in Georgia. Lightening up on bonds, pushing prices down and yields up, investors bought riskier assets like stocks and bitcoin.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency smashed through the $38,000 mark to hit a record high on Thursday as it continued its massive rally. Bitcoin has been up about 29% in the first days of 2021 and is up 380% over the past 12 months.
3. Congress confirms Biden as next president
Congress early Thursday confirmed the Electoral College vote for Biden, a day after Trump supporters breached the Capitol in a chaotic effort to avoid the formal recognition that the president lost the election. Shortly after the confirmation, White House spokesman Dan Scavino tweeted Trump’s statement, which promised “an orderly transition on January 20th,” the day of Biden’s inauguration, but also perpetuated the baseless claim that he actually won.
Congress’ process of counting Electoral College votes was interrupted Wednesday afternoon when rioters stormed the U.S. Capitol building. A woman who was among the invaders was shot and killed by Capitol Police. Three other people died from medical emergencies.
4. U.S. trade group asks Pence to ‘seriously consider’ invoking 25th Amendment
The National Association of Manufacturers, a trade organization representing 14,000 U.S. companies, called on Vice President Mike Pence to “seriously consider” invoking the 25th Amendment of the Constitution to remove Trump from office. Jay Timmons, CEO of the manufacturers group, is a former executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Two Democratic U.S. representatives worked on a letter to Pence requesting he invoke the amendment.
Members of Trump’s Cabinet issued harsh rebukes of the violence that unfolded at the Capitol. The officials, however, stopped short of criticizing the president, who had urged his supporters to take action at a pro-Trump rally Wednesday morning.
An administration official confirmed to CNBC’s Eamon Javers that National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien and Deputy National Security Advisor Matthew Pottinger are considering resigning over the insurrection. Stephanie Grisham, chief of staff for first lady Melania Trump, and Sarah Matthews, White House deputy press secretary, both resigned Wednesday.
Mick Mulvaney, Trump’s former chief of staff, announced on CNBC on Thursday he is resigning as special envoy to Northern Ireland.
5. Democrats win the majority in the Senate
During the Capitol siege, Democrat Jon Ossoff was projected as the winner of the second of two Senate runoff elections Tuesday in Georgia. The defeat of Republican David Perdue, whose Senate term expired Sunday, coupled with Democrat Raphael Warnock’s projected victory over Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, splits the 100 Senate right down the middle. However, Democrats take over the majority as Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would be the tie-breaking vote. After Biden’s inauguration, Democrats will control the Senate, House and the White House.
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) – The housewares retailer reported quarterly profit of 8 cents per share, short of the 19 cents a share consensus estimate. Revenue also fell short of forecasts, hurt by a steep drop in store traffic and higher freight costs, among other factors. Shares dropped 12.5% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
Walgreens (WBA) – The drugstore operator beat estimates by 19 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of $1.22 per share. Revenue also exceeded Wall Street projections. Walgreens said the business environment remains challenging, but it is maintaining its prior fiscal 2021 forecast. The shares added 3% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
Conagra (CAG) – The food producer reported quarterly profit of 81 cents per share, 8 cents a share above estimates. Revenue was in line with Wall Street forecasts. It also forecast organic sales growth of 6% to 8% for the current quarter, as stay-at-home consumers continue to stoke demand for its frozen dinners and other products. The stock fell slightly in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
Constellation Brands (STZ) – The spirits producer earned $3.09 per share for its latest quarter, compared to a consensus estimate of $2.39 a share. Revenue also topped estimates and the company authorized a new $2 billion share repurchase program. The shares added 2.4% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
CureVac (CVAC) – CureVac struck an alliance deal with drugmaker Bayer, aimed at helping the German biotech firm gain regulatory approval for its Covid-19 vaccine as well as distribute vaccine doses. The stock jumped 15% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
DXC Technology (DXC) – The IT consulting firm is the target of a more than $10 billion takeover bid from French rival Atos, according to two sources with knowledge of the matter who spoke to Reuters. A formal approach is said to have been made, with discussions still at a preliminary stage. The stock added 8% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) – Bank of America Securities upgraded the bank to “buy” from “neutral,” calling it “best-in-class” in what will likely be a strong 2021 for banks. The stock added 1.9% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
Nvidia (NVDA) – The chipmaker’s stock was added to Citi’s “Catalyst Watch” list, with Citi expecting Nvidia shares to emerge from recent underperformance coming out of next week’s Consumer Electronics Show. The stock rose 2% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
Alibaba (BABA) – The China e-commerce giant and Tencent Holdings could be added to a U.S. blacklist by the White House, according to multiple reports. Many consider such a ban unlikely, however, given that the Chinese firms are widely held by U.S. investors.
Twitter (TWTR), Facebook (FB) – Twitter and Facebook temporarily locked President Donald Trump’s accounts and removed some of his posts, hoping to quell further violence in Washington following yesterday’s assault on Capitol Hill.
MGM Resorts (MGM) – The casino operator was urged by shareholder Snow Lake Capital to sell 20% of its China business to a strategic partner. Snow Lake owns 7.5% of MGM China and said such a move would give MGM financial flexibility.
Costco (COST) – The warehouse retailer reported a 12% jump in December sales compared to a year earlier, helped by increased sales of frozen foods and liquor. Comparable store sales were up 10.7%.
Baidu (BIDU) – Baidu has chosen Goldman Sachs (GS) and CLSA for its planned Hong Kong listing, according to a Bloomberg report. The offering by the China-based search engine could raise at least $3.5 billion.
T-Mobile US (TMUS) – The mobile service provider added 824,000 postpaid phone subscribers during the fourth quarter, bring its 2020 total to 5.5 million.
Before the pandemic, one-third of US households with children were already “net worth poor,” lacking enough financial resources to sustain their families for 3 months at a poverty level. Their savings are virtually nil, and they have no financial cushion to provide the basics for their children. Comments || Link
US politicians who engage in “negative partisanship”, referring to hostile, nonsubstantive rhetoric about an opposing party or statements emphasizing defeats of partisan opponents, are not rewarded with higher evaluations from citizens. Voters don’t want representation focused around polarization. Comments || Link
For young adults in the 18–24-year-old age group, pornography was the most commonly endorsed helpful source about how to have sex, as compared to other possible options such as sexual partners, friends, media, and health care professionals. This was more likely for males and heterosexuals. Comments || Link
NASA wants to deorbit the International Space Station before the end of this decade. Axiom plans to replace the International Space Station and potentially save NASA billions per year. Comments || Link
Galaxy-Size Bubbles Discovered Towering Over the Milky Way. For decades, astronomers debated whether a particular smudge was close-by and small, or distant and huge. A new X-ray map supports the massive option. Comments || Link
Couples therapists, without breaking confidentiality, what are some relationships that instantly set off red flags, and do you try and get them to work out? Comments || Link
TIL in 2013, a 9 year-old British girl passed through Turkish customs with a toy passport with gold teddy bears on the front that identified her as a unicorn. Her mother accidentally handed over the passport that the girl had made for her toy unicorn, and the customs offіcer accepted and stamped it Comments || Link
TIL Ants sleep by taking about 250 one minute naps throughout their day. It totals just under 5 hours of sleep. This allows for 80% of their colony to be awake, working and prepared at any given moment. Comments || Link
TIL Jerry Seinfeld is banned from the New York soup stall that he used for the basis of The Soup Nazi episode of Seinfeld. Weeks after the episode aired, Seinfeld went in for lunch, and chef Al Yeganeh asked him to leave, unhappy with the moniker the show had given him. Comments || Link
[OC] By applying a collector's curve to large marine animals (>2m) I’ve determined that there are six sea monsters left to discover. Video explanation and sources in comments. Comments || Link
New images of Dave Bautista and the cast of Zack Snyder's 'Army of the Dead' - A group of mercenaries plot a heist on a Las Vegas casino during a zombie outbreak. Comments || Link
Netflix’s next big science fiction movie is set to debut next week: Outside the Wire, a military science fiction thriller starring Damson Idris as a soldier assigned to assist a classified military robot (played by Anthony Mackie) in a war zone. Comments || Link
A great white shark may grow and use 20,000+ teeth in its lifetime. Also, it has 5 rows of teeth at any given time & will never run out of teeth because if one is lost, another spins forward from a coil-like tooth reservoir of backup teeth in the jaw and spins forward to replace the old one. Comments || Link
During the four years of the Civil War, Ft. Stevens was the closest the confederates got to Washington. During the insurrection on the US Capitol building today, supporters of Donald Trump carried the confederate battle flag through the Capitol as they committed attempted sedition. Comments || Link
The door to the dining area of the Alcobaça Monastery in Portugal was made narrow so that monks who got too fat were forced to go into fasting. Comments || Link
VXX As An Insurance Bet - In Confusion, There Is Profit
I know what you're thinking, "Oh great, another douchecanoe typing 'words words words' who adds a crayon drawing because he thinks this is investing." No. Because sirs (and madams), this is a casino! In this casino there are Robinhood autists YOLOing at the roulette table, or trying to win their YOLOs back at the nickel slots. Then there's theta gang, sitting at the blackjack tables like the card counters they are. They're not as fun, but they're methodical, and can play for hours at a sitting. Your loss porn is their gain. They know the House doesn't always have to win if they bet more when the odds are in their favor. In blackjack, if the dealer shows an ace, you can buy insurance. It's almost always a bad bet, because in multideck blackjack it's really hard to count cards. But if you could count the cards, you would know that sometimes, an insurance bet is a good play. For the hand we're all holding right now, the cards that will be dealt next can be (mostly) counted. Your portfolio insurance doesn't have to be SPY puts. You don't have to be a bear right now, but if you're at least bear curious, VXX is a decent play at the moment. For a detailed explainer on what VXX is, click here. For those of you who don't care about messy details just understand that VXX is an ETN trading on current and future month VIX (market volatility) futures. Presuming you're buying calls/selling puts because that's all some of you do, you're buying calls on futures of an volatility index. That's a lot of crystal balls to be juggling in one ticker symbol. Now let's look at the chart of VXX since January 2018, giving us almost three years of history: VXX Jan 18 through Oct 20 For the two of you who have ever read the disclosure on your broker's investment pitches, you know "past performance doesn't guarantee future results". How could it? We're looking at futures here, not pasts. But... Note that in the last three years, VXX has only been below $20 from late October 2019 to mid February 2020 - when Covid decided it was going to wreck our fully employed, stable, almost nirvana of an economy. Since Late March, we've been working off that excess peak as stonks have only been able to go up. That last little spike, however, came in September when election uncertainty coupled with Washington gridlock/Stimulus failure/JPow saying the Feds needed to help his printer go BRRRR. The VIX popped back to 30 after the first "Presidential" (air quotes) debate raised uncertainty over the outcome of the election/transfer of power and then the President was diagnosed with Covid. As the polls started to shift toward a sweep for the democrats, however, the removal of election uncertainty and the likelihood of even bigger stimulus after the election started to outweigh the fears of additional taxes/regulation on businesses, along with Congress and the White House continuing to play Lucy & The Football with us over stimulus before the election goosed the market. Stonks resumed their "only go up" posture, and the VXX has been creeping back down. That's the past. What's actually going to happen here? (NOTE: I'm well aware of WSB's NO POLITICAL BULLSHIT! rule. You should be too - look to the right if unfamiliar. The following items are about illustrating how uncertainty will lead to volatility so we can make green, not to talk about how red or blue you are.) 1) Polls always, always close before an election. It's still hard to put together the electoral map where President Trump wins, but there are late polls showing states that were clearly in Biden's column moving back to toss up. Narrowing polls, by definition, will increase election uncertainty. 2) The greater use of vote by mail increases the likelihood that we won't know who won - especially control of the Senate - on election night...or maybe a day or three after. 3) Individual Senate seats are less guaranteed to flip than the White House. In addition, there are possible runoffs. In Georgia, where a candidate must get 50% plus one vote to win, there are two seats currently in the toss-up category, and their runoffs are NINE WEEKS LONG. It's possible the next Congress will only have 98 Senators when they are sworn in, with Georgia getting around to sending Senators a week or so later. 4) Late this week or next, The White House/Nancy Pelosi/Mitch McConnell are probably going to have to say definitely/out loud that there will be no stimulus agreement before Nov 3rd. 5) Half the country is not prepared to accept the outcome of the election, regardless who wins. 6) If you think partisans are bitter and unable to reach an agreement now, wait until they're lame ducks. I don't see how all of these problems get magically solved in November or December. 7) Sometime in November, the market will quit worrying about just getting November 3rd over with and will start focusing on policy changes. A Republican Senate that refuses to pass anything for a Democratic President? A Democratic Senate that decides to get rid of the filibuster and pack the Supreme Court, Green New Deal, resume soaking the rich? 8) The Pandemic? That old thing? Newsrooms are working overtime to turn ensure we're all preparing for new lockdowns as winter approaches. Again, taking political opinions - mine or yours - out of this, the market got way too comfortable too quickly with what is about to happen November - January, and the open questions should lead to quite a bit of additional volatility. Bringing this home to that crayon drawing from CNBC above, does this environment look like it should have a VXX trading at the same levels from last fall, when unemployment was 3.5% with no inflation in sight, and reasonably stable DC politics? I don't think so. But here's the bonus thing. I may be wrong about any and all of the 8 catalysts above. They lend themselves to shorter term calls, but at least once per year, the market gets caught offsides, and VXX spikes. The ETN appears to be worthy of a core trading position below $20, in addition to calls at times like now when the market seems to be too comfortable with the discomfort that is coming. If you're counting cards with me, you see a lot of 10's left in the deck and the dealer is holding an ace. I'm buying the insurance. Not so much as a hedge against the negative, but because in confusion, there is profit. Counter-argument/caution: I've skimmed several articles noting that the VIX was pricing the election as the single biggest risk event ever. Clearly, I'm not the first to suggest this play and some will argue that it's priced in. But as this article from Forbes points out, the VIX/VXX is back to all time historical norms just a couple of weeks out. My argument is that people sold their event profits too soon, and that I expect a rising VXX into the election and possibly after. TL;DR - The market is underpricing the uncertainty coming around and after the election, and VXX calls will help play the volatility spike as nervousness returns over the next few weeks. Positions: 10 Nov 20 $24 calls Likely adding new Nov or Dec calls Monday after writing this and convincing myself of my own BS.
[Lost in the Sauce] Trump admin hides Paycheck Protection program details; lawmakers benefit from loans
Welcome to Lost in the Sauce, keeping you caught up on political and legal news that often gets buried in distractions and theater… or a global health crisis. Title refers to: The Trump admin is blocking IGs from getting info on over $1 trillion in relief spending, including corporation bailouts. The admin is also withholding PPP info from Congress, meaning we don't know if Trump or his family took taxpayer money. Additionally, we learned that at least 4 members of Congress have benefited from PPP money, but aren't required to disclose it. Housekeeping:
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Coronavirus
Inspectors general warned Congress last week that the Trump administration is blocking scrutiny of more than $1 trillion in spending related to the Covid-19 pandemic. According to the previously undisclosed letter, Department of Treasury attorneys concluded that the administration is not required to provide the watchdogs with information about the beneficiaries of programs like the $500 billion in loans for corporations. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin refused to provide Congress with the names of recipients of the taxpayer-funded coronavirus business loans. After criticism, Mnuchin began to walk back his denial, saying he will talk to lawmakers on a bipartisan basis “to strike the appropriate balance for proper oversight” of PPP loans “and appropriate protection of small business information.” At least 4 lawmakers have benefited in some way from the Paycheck Protection program they helped create.Politico has been told there are almost certainly more -- but there are zero disclosure rules, even for members of Congress.
Republicans on the list include Rep. Roger Williams of Texas, a wealthy businessman who owns auto dealerships, body shops and car washes, and Rep. Vicky Hartzler of Missouri, whose family owns multiple farms and equipment suppliers across the Midwest. The Democrats count Rep. Susie Lee of Nevada, whose husband is CEO of a regional casino developer, and Rep. Debbie Mucarsel Powell of Florida, whose husband is a senior executive at a restaurant chain that has since returned the loan.
Mick Mulvaney dumped as much as $550,000 in stocks the same day Trump assured the public the US economy was 'doing fantastically' amid the COVID-19 outbreak. Mulvaney unloaded his holdings in three different mutual funds, each of which is primarily made up of US stocks. The next day, the value of the mutual funds tanked.
Cases rising in many states
Good summary: There was supposed to be a peak. But the stark turning point, when the number of daily COVID-19 cases in the U.S. finally crested and began descending sharply, never happened. Instead, America spent much of April on a disquieting plateau, with every day bringing about 30,000 new cases and about 2,000 new deaths. This pattern exists because different states have experienced the coronavirus pandemic in very different ways…The U.S. is dealing with a patchwork pandemic. As of Friday, coronavirus cases were significantly climbing in 16 states: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Washington. Oklahoma is experiencing a massive increase in coronavirus cases just days before Trump’s planned rally in Tulsa. In Tulsa county itself, 1 in roughly 390 people have tested positive. Yet Trump plans on cramming 20,000 people in an event with voluntary face mask policy and no social distancing. Attendees must sign a waiver that absolves the president’s campaign of any liability from virus-related illnesses.
On Monday, Pence lied saying that Oklahoma has “flattened the curve.” As you can see at any of the resources immediately below, this is not even close to true. Over the past 14 days, the state has seen a 124% increase in cases and reports 65% of ICU beds are in use.
Tulsa World Editorial Board: This is the wrong time and Tulsa is the wrong place for the Trump rally. "We don't know why he chose Tulsa, but we can’t see any way that his visit will be good for the city...Again, Tulsa will be largely alone in dealing with what happens at a time when the city’s budget resources have already been stretched thin."
Earlier in the day, Trump tweeted that he is a victim of double standards when it comes to perception of his decision to resume campaign rallies in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, declaring that attempts to “covid shame” his campaign “won’t work!”
Resources to track increases: There are many different sites with various methods of visualizing the spread of coronavirus. Here are some that may be particularly useful this summer… Topos COVID-19 compiler homepage and graphs of each state since re-opening. How we reopen Safely has stats on each state’s progress towards meeting benchmarks to reopen safely (hint: almost none have reached all the checkpoints). WaPo has a weekly national map of cases/deaths; the largest regional clusters are in the southeast. On Monday, Trump twice said that “if we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any,” (video). Aside from the fact that cases exist even if we don’t test for them, we cannot explain the rising number of cases by increased testing capacity: In at least 14 states, the positive case rate is increasing faster than the increase in the average number of tests.
Reminder: In March Trump told Fox News that he didn't want infected patients from a cruise ship to disembark because it would increase the number of reported cases in the US. "I like the numbers being where they are," Trump said at the time. "I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault."
Fired scientist Rebekah Jones builds coronavirus dashboard to rival Florida’s… Her site shows thousands more people with the coronavirus, and hundreds of thousands fewer who have been tested, than the site run by the Florida Health Department.
Equipment and supplies
More studies prove wearing masks limits transmission and spread of coronavirus… One study from Britain found that routine face mask use by 50% or more of the population reduced COVID-19 spread to an R of less than 1.0. The R value measures the average number of people that one infected person will pass the disease on to. An R value above 1 can lead to exponential growth. The study found that if people wear masks whenever they are in public it is twice as effective at reducing the R value than if masks are only worn after symptoms appear. Meanwhile, Trump officials refuse to wear masks and Trump supporters copy his behavior… VP Mike Pence, leader of the coronavirus task force, published a tweet showing himself in a room full of Trump staffers, none wearing masks or practicing social distancing. Pence deleted the tweet shortly after criticism. A poll last week showed that 66% of likely-Biden-voters “always wear a mask,” while 83% of likely-Trump-voters “neverarely wear a mask.”
Trump’s opposition to face masks hasn’t stopped him from selling them to his supporters, though. The online Trump Store is selling $20 cotton American flag-themed face masks.
Yesterday, we learned that South Carolina Republican Rep. Tom Rice and family have tested positive for the coronavirus. Just two weeks ago, Rice was on the House floor and halls of the Capitol without wearing a mask.
Internal FEMA data show that the government’s supply of surgical gowns has not meaningfully increased since March… The slides show FEMA’s plan to ramp up supply into June and July hinges on the reusing of N95 masks and surgical gowns, increasing the risk of contamination. Those are supposed to be disposed of after one use. Nursing homes with urgent needs for personal protective equipment say they’re receiving defective equipment as part of Trump administration supply initiative. Officials say FEMA is sending them gowns that look more like large tarps -- with no holes for hands -- and surgical masks that are paper-thin. More than 1,300 Chinese medical-device companies that registered to sell PPE in the U.S. during the coronavirus pandemic used bogus registration data… These companies listed as their American representative a purported Delaware entity that uses a false address and nonworking phone number. Florida is sitting on more than 980,000 unused doses of hydroxychloroquine, but hospitals don’t want it… Gov. Ron DeSantis ordered a million doses of the drug to show support for Trump, but very few hospitals have requested it.
Native American communities struggle
The CARES Act money for Native American tribes, meant to assist people during the pandemic, came with restrictions that are impeding efforts to limit the transmission of the virus. For instance, the funds can only be used to cover expenses that are "incurred due to the public health emergency." On the Navajo Nation, the public health emergency is inherently related to some basic infrastructure problems. 30% of Navajo don’t have running water to wash their hands, but the money can’t be used to build water lines. Federal and state health agencies are refusing to give Native American tribes and organizations representing them access to data showing how the coronavirus is spreading around their lands, potentially widening health disparities and frustrating tribal leaders already ill-equipped to contain the pandemic. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has turned down tribal epidemiologists’ requests for data that it’s making freely available to states. A Hospital’s Secret Coronavirus Policy Separated Native American Mothers From Their Newborns… Pregnant Native American women were singled out for COVID-19 testing based on their race and ZIP code, clinicians say. While awaiting results, some mothers were separated from their newborns, depriving them of the immediate contact doctors recommend. New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham announced that state officials would investigate the allegations.
Personnel & appointees
Former IG Steve Linick told Congress he was conducting five investigations into Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the State Department before he was fired. In addition to investigating Pompeo's potential misuse of taxpayer funds and reviewing his decision to expedite an $8 billion arms sale to Saudi Arabia, Linick’s office was conducting an audit of Special Immigrant Visas, a review of the International Women of Courage Award, and another review "involving individuals in the Office of the Protocol."
Pompeo confidant emerges as enforcer in fight over watchdog’s firing: Linick testified that Undersecretary of State for Management Brian Bulatao, a decades-old friend of Pompeo’s, “tried to bully [him]” out of investigating Pompeo.
Trump has empowered John McEntee, director of the Presidential Personnel Office, to make significant staffing changes inside top federal agencieswithout the consent — and, in at least one case, without even the knowledge — of the agency head. Many senior officials in Trump's government are sounding alarms about the loss of expertise and institutional knowledge. Trump’s nominee for under secretary of defense for policy, retired Army Brig. Gen. Anthony Tata, has a history of making Islamophobic and inflammatory remarksagainst prominent Democratic politicians, including falsely calling former President Barack Obama a Muslim. Amid racial justice marches, GOP advances Trump court pick hostile to civil rights.Cory Wilson, up for a lifetime seat on the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit, has denied that restrictive voting laws lead to voter suppression and called same-sex marriage “a pander to liberal interest groups.” Interior Secretary David Bernhardt has indefinitely extended the terms of the acting directors of the Bureau of Land Management and the National Park Service, sidestepping the typical Senate confirmation process for those posts and violating the Federal Vacancies Reform Act,
Courts and DOJ
The Supreme Court declined on Monday to take a closer look at qualified immunity, the legal doctrine that shields law enforcement and government officials from lawsuits over their conduct. Developed in recent decades by the high court, the qualified immunity doctrine, as applied to police, initially asks two questions: Did police use excessive force, and if they did, should they have known that their conduct was illegal because it violated a "clearly established" prior court ruling that barred such conduct? In practice, however, lower courts have most often dismissed police misconduct lawsuits on grounds that there is no prior court decision with nearly identical facts. The Supreme Court ruled that federal anti-discrimination laws protect gay and transgender employees. Justice Neil M. Gorsuch and Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. joined the court’s liberals in the 6 to 3 ruling. They said Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which prohibits discrimination “because of sex,” includes LGBTQ employees.
Alito, writing more than 100 pages in dissent for himself and Thomas, accused the court's majority of writing legislation, not law. Kavanaugh wrote separately: "We are judges, not members of Congress...Under the Constitution and laws of the United States, this court is the wrong body to change American law in that way."
Just days before the SCOTUS opinion was released, the Trump administration finalized a rule that would remove nondiscrimination protections for LGBTQ people when it comes to health care and health insurance. The SCOTUS ruling may make it easier to challenge the changes made by Trump.
The Supreme Court also declined to take up California’s “sanctuary” law, denying the Trump administration’s appeal. This means that the lower court opinion upholding one of California's sanctuary laws is valid, limiting cooperation between law enforcement and federal immigration authorities. Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, two of the Court's conservative members, supported taking up the case. A federal appeals court appeared unlikely Friday to stop a judge from examining why the Justice Department sought to walk away from its prosecution of Michael Flynn. "I don't see why we don't observe regular order," said Judge Karen Henderson. "Why not hold this in abeyance and see what happens?" Judge Robert Wilkins told Flynn's lawyer that if Sullivan doesn't let the government drop the case, "then you can come back here on appeal."
Other
Good read: Fiona Hill on being mistaken as a secretary by Trump, her efforts to make sure he was not left alone with Putin, and what the US, UK and Russia have in common. “It’s spitting in Merkel’s face,” said Vladimir Frolov, a former Russian diplomat who’s now a foreign-policy analyst. “But it’s in our interests.”
Russia’s Foreign Ministry welcomed Trump’s plan to withdraw more than a quarter of U.S. troops from Germany.
Op-Ed: Why cutting American forces in Germany will harm this alliance
According to a new book, the Secret Service had to seek more funding to cover the cost of protecting Melania Trump while she stayed in NYC to renegotiate her prenup - taxpayers paid tens of millions of dollars to allow her to get better terms. Additionally, NYPD estimated its own costs conservatively at $125,000 a day. Georgia election 'catastrophe' in largely minority areas sparks investigation. Long lines, lack of voting machines, and shortages of primary ballots plagued voters. As of Monday night, there were still over 200,000 uncounted votes. Fox News runs digitally altered images in coverage of Seattle’s protests, Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone Fox News Mocked After Mistaking Monty Python Joke for Seattle Protest Infighting In addition to holding a rally on the day after Juneteenth (originally scheduled the day of), Trump will be accepting the GOP nomination in Jacksonville on the 60th anniversary of “Ax Handle Saturday,” a KKK attack on African Americans. Environmental news:
Ruling against environmentalists, the U.S. Supreme Court decided that the federal government has the authority to allow a proposed $7.5 billion natural gas pipeline to cross under the popular Appalachian Trail in rural Virginia.
Trump administration has issued a new rule blocking tribes from protecting their waters from projects like pipelines, dams, and coal terminals.
The EPA published a proposal in the Federal Register that critics described as an assault on minority communities coping with the public health legacy of structural racism. The rule would bar EPA from giving special consideration to individual communities that bear the brunt of environmental risks — frequently populations of color.
The Trump administration is preparing to drill off Florida’s coast, but says it will wait until after the November election to avoid any backlash from Florida state leaders.
Immigration news
U.S. Customs and Border Protection used emergency funding meant for migrant families and children to pay for dirt bikes, canine supplies, computer equipment and other enforcement related-expenditures… The money was meant to be spent on “consumables and medical care” for migrants at the border.
ACLU files lawsuit against stringent border restrictions related to coronavirus that largely bar migrants from entering the United States.
Under Trump’s leadership, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services has mismanaged its finances so badly that it has sought an emergency $1.2 billion infusion from taxpayers. When Trump took office, USCIS inherited a budget surplus. A large amount of funding is drained by its deliberate creation of more busy work for immigrants and their lawyers — as well as thousands of USCIS employees. These changes are designed to make it harder for people to apply for, receive or retain lawful immigration status.
Asylum-seeking migrants locked up inside an Arizona ICE detention center with one of the highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases say they were forced to clean the facility and are 'begging' for protection from the virus
ICE plans to spend $18 million on thousands of new tasers and the training to use them
IDEAS FOR GTA 6 (VI) (STORY/MAP/FEATURES...) NON OFFICIAL ! ! !
Hello guys, I am writing my whishlists about GTA 6, I lost my hope for GTA 6 while Rockstar don't answer us about it, if anybody wants GTA 6 or don't, stop writing GTA 6 in Rockstar games Social Media Posts, just be silent to GTA 6 be exist soon, because we tried everything so why we don't do that at least, this words for Rockstar Games Community and haters, and this post is only a idea for GTA 6 not a leak. 1- Features: - 3 Playable Protagonist - For the First Time in the Series there is a Female Protagonist - Return Characters From GTA 4 and GTA 5 (HD GTA) and Some Protagonist Appear and Mentioned - Multiple Cities and States - Huge Map - More Enjoyable Minigames (Shopping, Trading, Smuggling, Kidnapping, Racing, etc...) - The Graphics is Better than RDR 2 Graphics - The Physics are the same as Max Payne 3 and RDR 2 - More Wilderness -More Animals to add - Alot of Small Towns in The Map - 2 Limited Places: Las Vegas (Las Ventures) , Mexico City (Capitalo) 2- States: - Florida (Florida) - New York (Liberty) - New Jersey (Alderney) - Pennsylvania / Michigan / Illinois (???) - Georgia / Alabama / Mississippi / Louisiana (Lemoyne) 3- Cities: - Miami (Vice City) - Tampa (Cottonmouth) - Orlando (???) - Jacksonville (???) - Atlanta (???) - New Orleans (Saint Denis) - Washington D.C (Capital City) - Chicago / Detroit / Philadelphia (Carcer City) - Atlantic City (???) - Jersey City / Newark (Alderney City) - New York City (Liberty City) - Albany (???) - Buffalo (???) 4- Protagonist: - Marcus Jackson: he is 26 years old, Street Gang Member, Lives in Carcer City, he is African American man - Walton Parker: he is 45 years old, Retired Drug Dealer, Lives in Vice City, he is a Widower with one 9 years old kid, he is American - Kate Williamson: she is 23 years old, Hacker and Smart Thief, Lives in Liberty City, She is American 5- Story: (The game is About Mafias Family's and Drug Lords) ( The Game isn't Dark Like GTA 4 and Bright Like GTA 5 its in the Middle) - In the Prologue the game will start in (1999) Las Ventures, a Young man Called (Walton Parker) and he is 22 years old, he doing some sort of drug dealing with a big Russian Mafia Boss somewhere in Caligula Hall Casino, then the deal not going fine, then it will start a big shooting ,then you need to run away from the casino, when you get out there is someone who was waiting for Walton, and he is the brother of the Mafia Boss, a sniper shot got in his face, that was Walton's Friend (Stanley) Protecting him, then Stanley Takes Walton To the Airport, Fly To Vice City. After 24 years Later (2023) you will start playing with Kate, Doing hers Routine, After that She entered a Jewelry Store, stealing alot amount of jewelry with a Smart way, without someone Caught her, she out the store and stole a super car smartly, runs to hers house and hack the camera's the store then she finished doing that and see the view of the city. Taking us to Carcer City with Marcus, rolling with his gang members suddenly heard some guns shot, they go to find out, only some other gangs start gun war, starting a gun fight till finish, Marcus house is the only stolen house from the other, he takes his friend Chris to the market to buy, suddenly in the middle of trip the car is low fuel, then you need to go to the gas station to gas it up, after that they reached to the market and buy some resources and back to home, then here starts the open world. After Completing Some Missions there is a Mission that Marcus needs to have a deal to get some drugs from the Big Mafias in the City, he go there and make the deal, telling him there is a drug dealer you need to go and he lives in Vice City, Marcus go with 2 Mafia Members and fly to Vice City. In a Park of Vice City there is Middle Aged Guy sitting with his son ,preparing to going to School ,he takes his kid to School, After that there is a Call From Stanley telling him to go with the Ex - Mafia Leader of Vice City he Go there, and takes the drugs because there is deal needs to happen like the final mission for him to get out the Mafia, he takes the Drugs and go with 4 Mafia members, they Making the deal in a Industrial place in Vice City, Suddenly there is a Ambush from a Mexican Gang some of the members dies, Marcus and 2 of the Members runs away, and Walton in his alone Fight with the enemies, he finished then he want to grab the money and the Drugs but he Saw a Bomb there is Activated then he Can't Do anything only to Run, he get out the place with Big Explode there, he runs away without the Money and The Drugs. Now the Both of them in Big Trouble and the game going to combine the Problems with them to help each other, with kate to be Featured and Help them. - I Hope Everyone Enjoys the Ideas That I am Sharing, and Remember Guys this is a ideas for GTA 6 and not Official, Maybe Some of the things that I mentioned maybe Appeared In GTA 6 So Don't get Your Hopes high Because Maybe Some them Happend.
Update notes: finished adding all the bridges, added a link to photos. I will try to format everything to be a bit nicer and/or make a copy at another location that allows for easienicer formatting. As requested by raleighspritely in the other bridges thread, this post is intended to help generally newer riders figure out specifically how to get onto each bridge in each direction, where all most of the exit options go and any other weirdnesses each bridge may have. I'll assume you know roughly where you are and roughly how to get to each bridge. Some are easy to find the entrances for (Burrard), some are weird (Cambie, southbound) and some have entrances a long way from where the cars access (Golden Ears) so if they're super weird I'll try and give you more specifics. Photos from the day showing most of the bridges: https://imgur.com/a/RvTUs0V (missing: 2nd Narrows, KSB, Canada Line, Arthur Liang) And now to talking about crossing bridges! Granville - follow the instructions for Burrard or Cambie If you insist on using the GSB (don't) SB access is easiest via Howe St and NB access at 5th & Granville Burrard Easiest to get onto IMO as the access is right at the ends of the bridge
South Bound: connection is at Pacific & Burrard, SW corner. From Beach Ave your options are up Thurlow from the east end of Sunset Beach or just along Pacific from the west end of Sunset beach
as you get to the south end of the bridge @ Cornwall you can:
go right to Cornwall & Cypress
go straight, across Cornwall
then right onto Yew
more straight to Burrard & First where you can go up Burrard St
left @ Burrard & First towards Granville Island
North Bound: connection is at Cornwall & Burrard. You can also hop on the bike lane easily at 1st & Burrard
as you get to the north end you can:
right to Hornby & Pacific
across Pacific then left onto Pacific towards English Bay
straight & up the hill along Burrard to Drake, Burnaby St, Davie St
Cambie Going southbound on Cambie is super weird to get to unless you're already on Nelson St
South Bound: access is on Nelson St @ Cambie St which downtown is running almost perpendicular to the bridge. If you're coming from the northeast you can connect via Beatty
the main exit will take you to Olympic Village Station
If you cut off early (through the flexibarriers) you can pop up Cambie to go left/right on 7th
If you stay till the station you can hang a hard left at 2nd to cut under the bridge and go to Olympic Village
or cross 2nd and take Heather St south
or continue along 2nd briefly to find yourself on Seaside Bypas
North Bound: access is at Cambie & 2nd by the VPD headquarters on 5th. It's that weird intersection of numbered streets you thought were parallel but also manage to intersect
veer left takes you onto what is technically a pedestrian only way that connects to Pacific Blvd EB, yield to pedestrians.
right takes you onto a hairpin
first right connects you to Cooperage Way/Marinaside and basically the Seawall
second right will take you up a short ramp and connect to the Smithe St bike "lane" which can be used to connect to Pacific WB, Richards or all the way up the hill past Burrard & Smithe
Lion's Gate North Bound:
climb the Causeway through Stanley Park, it's not too bad especially with the "new" fence
do a 1/2 Stanley Park loop and as you go around the right turn at what you'll think is the top of the hill you'll see a road to the left with a gate, take that and turn right when you hit the causeway
watch for the little chicane just before the bridge
descent down the north side of bridge can be a bit rough & bumpy
when you get to the north end stay right and go down the little road
if you go HARD right when it levels out you can connect to
the Spirit Trail east bound
Taylor Way which will take you to Parkgate, hang a left at the mall and you can connect to the trail over to Ambleside
if you go roughly straightl/left it'll connect onto Marine and along to Capilano
South Bound:
once you're back directly under the bridge, there's a ramp up the west side of the bridge going north, take that, it'll open up and hang a hard right to turn to face south
on exit at the pumphouse(?) you can
continue south
you'll come across a road to the right, taking it will get you to Park Dr just before Prospect Point
continuing straight takes you along the Causeway and connects onto Georgia ST
hang a 180deg right, then you can either:
cut under the bridge to go back north
go left up a fairly steep, narrow paved path to Prospect Pt
Second Narrows/IronworkersThis is one of the weirdest/awkwardest, particularly at the north end North Bound:
access is at Cambridge & Cassiar. You can connect up via Cassiar from Adanac or Bridgeway St & a small path if you're coming from Portside
as you turn right off Cassiar onto Cambridge take the small path to the left, follow the path down, along and up and it'll take you straight onto the bridge, yield to oncoming people
alternate access is a path off the left side of Fellowes st. It connects closer to the bridge deck but IMO isn't worth taking
Exits:
as you round the right turn of the ramp you can:
go left at the pedestrian controlled crosswalk and
cross Main to go west to Phibbs, A&W etc
hard left onto the bike path parallel to Main and connect to the WB bike path on Barrow st
go straight and connect to Dollarton, Old Dollarton
left on Old Dollarton then onto Riverside or Seymour River can be used for getting to Seymour Parkway, right goes up to Seymour, left can connect to Cap U
straight on Dollarton can be used for going out to Deep Cove
South Bound Access is here basically across from Phibbs. Many ways to get to it, but you've gotta get to that spot to go south. Exiting: takes you down through the trees, watch for the pair of switchbacks. You'll end up at the bottom of Skeena St.
right takes you onto the Portside bike route
left takes you up Skeena through the tunnel
turn right across the crosswalk as you exit the tunnel takes you onto the path you may have used for getting onto the bridge NB, go left to connect back to Cassiar
continue up the hill gets you to Skeena & Cambridge
it's 6 of One, Half a Dozen of the other if you're going south
Arthur Laing I regard this as an "experts only" type bridge that I wouldn't recommend to anyone not comfortable with riding in fairly close proximity to cars. There's no separated lane and just a narrow shoulder. That said, I don't feel unsafe on this bridge for some reason, but that might just be from riding it a bunch and being used to riding next to cars. Anyways, onto how to get on/off: Southbound: access is via the car ramp at where Marine & Granville all come together in a 6 lane clusterfuck that was meant to be the highway through Vancouver. Normally I access coming off NW Marine, onto the clusterfuck, pick up speed down the hill and (with a lot of shoulder checking) get across the right most lane onto the ramp. Go up the ramp and stick to the right. Exiting: things get dicey/exciting. You'll be crossing roads at speed so be shoulder checking.
Just before the car exit (and right before the overpass) you can dive right onto a pathway
going right, then right again is probably easiest for most connections here
this path can be used to go around McArthurGlen and connect to Grauer Rd and then onto Templeton to Iona
take it to connect to Airport Rd and the bit of mess of trails and eventuall down to Russ Baker Way
1st Car Right: Russ Baker Way, takes you around an off-ramp, will take you SB and connects to No2 Rd
cross Russ Baker exit (watch for cars exiting), keep going along, you can go right on Templeton and go out to Iona Beach
North Bound: you can either access off the paths off Airport Rd here or by riding north along Russ Baker Way and basically sticking right and following the signs to Vancouver. Exiting: again a bit dicey with some potential lane crossing
Sticking right takes you left and onto Marine WB/Granville
If it's not too busy and/or you brought your sprinter legs, you can hammer and cross lanes to go left at the first light and connect onto Marine
If not, carefully get to the right and make your way up to cross at the same light.
crossing over (carefully) to the left ramp will take you right and onto Marine EB. You can take your first right and go down Oak St, left on Kent Ave S and eventually connect to Cambie St. I don't know if I've taken this route more than once or twice so YMMV.
Pitt River This is one of the nicest crossings. All the recently built (or updated) bridges are really, really nice once you're on the deck (Pitt River, Port Mann, Golden Ears + Ironworkers post update). The cycle/pedestrian lane is on the north side of the span and is nice and wide. Access on the west end requires crossing Belfast Ave/Fremont Connector that loops under the bridge. Since access is all for the one side crossing my instructions are written for West->East travel but basically just do them in reverse for East->West. Coming from NW (Trabouley Poco Trail/Deboville Slough), you do a couple zigzags and hairpins and crossing Belfast St but you can see your target the whole time so this bridge is honestly one of the easiest to get onto. Coming from the SW, you go under the bridge parallel to the Fremont Connector then see the access to your left. If you were to keep going on the path instead you'd eventually end up at Deboville Slough. East end of the bridge drops you in Pitt Meadows. As you exit (eastbound) you can immediately do 180deg turn left to get onto the trails. Another left at the river to go south, north and you can make your way out to Pitt Lake on the trails. To access the trail parallel to, and on the south side of, Lougheed Highway take the left at the river then left again at Ferryslip Rd. If you go straight Old Dewdney Trunk Rd is a pretty nice ride towards Maple Ridge. Golden Ears Alright, this one is possibly the most difficult unless you know exactly where to go, partly because they're a long way along the bridge from where cars access. The Southbound Access is at 113B & Airport Way (Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows). The northbound access is at 100A Ave & 201St (Langley) Southbound
You can access the SB access either from Airport Way (coming from the west) or along Maple Meadows Way (coming from the north by Meadowcentre mall). If you're coming from the north or east you go west at the 113B roundabout, cross the road, then left at the second roundabout and hop into the bike lane. If you're coming from the east hang a right at the roundabout and hop into the bike lane.
The SB exit involves a rather fun ramp down and drops you in an industrial area. Unless you're going east, my recommendation is work your way west until you get to 98A & 192, cross to the far side then hop on the GoldenEars Greenway.
Northbound Access is at 100A Ave & 201St. You go up the multilevel round ramp. Your exit will basically be the aforementioned 113B roundabout, you can go straight through it to get onto Maple Meadows Way towards the mall, right will change into 203St as it turns north or go left and west towards the airport. Canada Line Bridge This one is on the side of the Canada Line bridge section between Marine & Cambie Station & Bridgeport Station. North connection is on Kent Ave S @ Cambie. However you have to go east from Kent Ave N & Cambie to turn south to get onto Kent Ave S and access the ramp. If you're coming down Cambie, hang a right on Kent Ave N. South Connection is at River Road and Van Horne Way. If you're going North then east, my recommendation is take Cambie north, then cut east at 59th. Kent Ave N between Cambie and Ontario sucks butt and cars are frequently impatient assholes on that section (it's also rough, needs a repave and has a lot of rail tracks). If you're going north then west you can go west on Kent Ave N and then right on Heather before climbing a bit and taking the westbound route of your choice. If you're just going north then Cambie, Ontario & Heather are all pretty good choices with Ontario & Heather being quieter. I can't remember how all of Heather's crossings are since I haven't ridden it past 59th in years. If you're going South, you can go:
west along River Rd towards the casino & Bridgeport Station
continue SW around the clusterfucks that are Bridgeport Rd, SeaIsland Way and you can return to River Rd and hop onto a gravel trail that you can take pretty much all the way to Steveston
south on Van Horne way to eventually connect onto Garden City Way. This route is about 95% bike lane but theres a one or two spots where taking the sidewalk is unfortunately the prudent choice (I think the south side of Sea Island Way for ~50m) before the bike lane reappears.
east on River Rd towards Shell Rd. If you take Shell Rd far enough south there's a gravel trail that you can use to get to Hammersmith Gate, Horseshoe Way and across to Rice Mill Rd where you can find the Massey Tunnel Shuttle (this is my quiet route to the ferry, my fast route is to hammer south on No5)
Formatting is becoming a pain because this is getting long. Sorry! Port Mann This one is like the Pitt River Bridge in that the pedestrian/bike path is only on the north/east side of the bridge deck. West access is where the Port Mann passes over United Boulevard and where Unite intersects the Mary Hill Bypass offramps. If you're coming off the bridge you can go south/west on United and eventually work your way over towards Braid Station. If you go east on the Mary Hill Bypass you can connect to the Traboulay PoCo trail, Argue St and work your way up to the Pitt River bridge. There's also a mess of trails in and around Colony Farm but you're on your own for that :) East access is a ways up a pretty decent hill at 152st/112Ave by Dogwood Campgrounds. If you're going north/west, the signage is good. Just don't take the overpass over the highway. How you get to 152/112...up to you. It's a big grid! Alex Fraser Ok, this one is another bit of a mess in terms of access. I don't think this one is technically unidirectional like the others, but I recommend riding the same way as cars are travelling and this guide will be based on that. Careful on the deck, there's a bunch of spots where you have to dodge the bases of signs and other spots where the path just shifts left/right. Southbound: You've made it over the Queensborough or come in from Richmond. You've made it onto the Annacis Channel bridge and are approaching Annacis island. You'll see a bus-stop on an island, you want to get there (if not busy, drop the curb & cut across, otherwise there's a crosswalk to use), take the crosswalk that goes parallel to the bus-only section of intersection, onto the sidewalk on the far-far side and then left and you'll see the path onto the bridge. You'll get dropped off with the choice of left or right. Left takes you towards HWY17, River Rd which are the two options for getting to the ferry (take River, it's quieter and only marginally slower). Right will take you under the bridge, and after you go past Planet Ice you can go left towards River Rd east, right-then-right to get onto Nordel north/east or just right for the Delta-South Surrey Greenway. If you're trying to get to South Surrey, go as if you're going up Nordel, get over the overpass, then take the trail that cuts back to the right. This is the North Delta Greenway and is superior to the DSS Greenway in basically every way including being WAY smoother (I ride it on my carbon road bike on 25mm tires). North Bound: Starting from Planet Ice, take the path up onto the bridge, ride across, question why you're out here and didn't just take the Massey Shuttle to get home faster... At the north end of the bridge, you'll end up next to the Annacis exit ramp. At the end of it, you want to take the small crosswalk onto the island with the bus stop, across Cliveden ave onto the island on the far side, then across another little crosswalk onto the path and hang a left. Stick to this path, you'll go back over the Annacis Channel and find yourself at a zig-zagging ramp. At the bottom of that you have the options of:hard right: path through to Hamilton Highway Park where you can take an overpass towards River Rd left then right: onto Boundary Rd then Dyke rd, you can use this to get over towards Westminster Highway via Fraserwood Way. left then left (generally recommended): take Boundary Rd north. At Boundary & Boyd you can go right to the Queensborough or left onto Westminster Hwy which you can use to get all the way to Richmond or to connect to River Rd Queensborough because New West is at a 45deg angle I'll be using "up/down and top/bottom" for this bridge because it's effectively a hill. Top is 22nd St station end, bottom is Queensborough Landing. The top connection is just below 22nd St Station. If you're coming from 22nd St station just take the bridge down, it'll drop you on Boyd St. Left takes you to QB Landing. Right takes you to...not a lot. It's narrow, you'll probably have to slow down a bunch as you pass people. If you're coming from Market Crossing area or New West (both via Marine Dr) I recommend taking the "up" side of the bridge down because it has about 1% of the traffic the "down" side does. To get to it, the access is the ramp on the "cars up" side of the bridge. Otherwise, you can use the ramp on the "cars down" side to connect to the "down" side. Either way as you're going down, watch for the hairpins at the bottom! If you're going up and heading to downtown New West take the "up" side. Head east along Marine/Stewardson. You can eventually head right down a side street to get to S&O because that's why you're in New West right? If not, you're at S&O now. Best way to get through to the rest of downtown is via the Quay. If you're going up and heading to anywhere else take the "down" side and go all the way to 22nd St Station. Right and past the station connects to 7th Ave across New West. Left you can use to get onto both Marine Dr or Marine Way to go west to Market Crossing, Big Bend, Glenlyon, River District. Straight turns into the BC Parkway and travels under the skytrain past Edmonds, Royal Oak, Metrotown stations. Knight St Recommendation: if you can, keep going west and take the Canada Line Bridge. This bridge was NOT intended for cyclists at all as you're about to learn and this section may get a little rant-y. Northbound:
Access is off Bridgeport. Technically you're not supposed to ride on the roadway, but the sign for that is so late onto the bridge you have to know this in advance unless you want to stop and lift your bike over the concrete barrier.
That said, assuming you knew to get onto the sidewalk somewhere at the start of the on-ramp before the barrier begins (it starts at a crosswalk and there's no curb cut), you'll be riding on a pretty narrow sidewalk with barriers both sides. It's rough.
You'll eventually get to an off-ramp, this is Mitchell Island. You'll need to take the crosswalk across to the left. The cut in the barrier is super narrow. Cross the island, drop the curb (again no curb cut) and cross to the next section of sidewalk. Continue north.
Next spot you'll get to gives the option of a crosswalk to the left, riding straight into a post in the middle of the path, or dodging the post and continuing straight/veering right. Go right, this takes you down to Marine Dr.
At Marine you'll find signs pointing to the Kent, Inverness & Borden bike routes
Kent involves following the path to the right and taking your first right
Inverness involves taking the couple crosswalks and getting across Marine, going under the KSB overpass, hop back on the sidewalk after the bridge and follow the signs up to Inverness
Borden I've never done, but I think involves getting across Marine, then taking the sidewalk east to the first street north
Crazy prediction: COVID-19 will seriously hurt the US standing in the Global Economy
So we know that the American response to COVID-19 has been bad. Competing for the Darwin awards bad. The only first world countries that have a higher per-capita infection rate are Spain, Belgium and Iceland, all of which have a significantly fewer new cases per day today compared to their peak infection rate. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (Click on the countries to the left to see how many new cases are reported compared to the peak) https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html (Change view to per capita cases) Evidence of the continued spread in the USA can be seen in the rising of cases outside of NY. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-deaths-cases-united-states.html This also takes into account the testing rate, since new deaths are dropping in NY, yet the rest of the countries total deaths remains nearly constant. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-york-coronavirus-cases.html (scroll down to reported deaths). vs https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html (scroll down to reported deaths). Since there is a lag in data, about 1-2 weeks for new detected cases and 4 weeks for deaths, it means that the non-NY social distancing measures between ~4/10-4/24 were insufficient to control the spread of the virus. With the loosening of state restrictions, it means the R0 number today will be higher than it was in the two weeks of 4/10-4/24, meaning there will be more new infections per day outside of NYC in 1-2 weeks then there are today. So, what does this mean? The US may "flatten" the curve, but not control the spread of the virus. In other words, the virus will continue to spread for the foreseeable future in an uncontrolled fashion (with an R0 value very close to 1 meaning daily new cases/death counts remain mostly the same). That doesn't necessarily mean there will be another spike in infections (although that is possible). Why is this? Well, here are the key differences between the USA and (most) other first world countries
Lack national contact tracing program
Insufficient testing - especially for rural communities
Insufficient PPE for hospitals and essential workers
Lack of national quarantine plan
A desire by a minority (~5-10% of the population - anti-vaxxers and the like) to ignore most safety recommendations (masks, no visiting family, etc) - and no repercussions if safety recommendations are ignored
Reopening Super-spreader locations (Churches, factories, and salons) where spread can continue even with
A refusal by top leadership (Trump Administration) to coordinate an international response - Reduces the ability of countries to coordinate responses such as short term travel bans to hotspots, share PPE, share ventilators, share information, etc.
A refusal of top leadership (Trump Administration) to coordinate an national response - Reduces state-by-state differences and leverages the best scientists to create a baseline plan for the country.
Growing partisanship about the response creating a lack of a response (mostly noticeable in mask wearing). This increases the spread as many anti-vaxxer types see wearing a mask/social distancing as a "liberal" issue rather than a "national" issue, meaning the virus spreads more.
There are a lot of big economies (France, Germany, China, Japan, South Korea, Italy, Australia, Switzerland, Spain, Netherlands, and Turkey) that have reduced the number of new infections to controllable levels. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (Click on the country in the left pane and click on the daily cases in the bottom right window). Since the new infection rate is low, that means if they determine a person is infected, they can perform contact tracing on that person, determine who they were in close contact with, and then quarantine everybody who they were in close contact with. This can reduce the number of new infections by a significant amount (I'm guessing reducing the likelihood of another infection by 75% - bringing the R0 value down significantly below 1) without social distancing efforts. There is no indication that the US will have any of this type of capability for at least 3 months. Probably closer to 6. The issue being a lack of national leadership. States may implement this, but many slow states such as Florida, Georgia, North Dakota, Kansas may not have the resources or political will to get something like this going quickly. Okay, so what does all this mean for businesses and stocks and investments. If you live in one of these countries where new infection rate are low with contact tracing, you are free to go out and spend money without worrying about getting infected. Higher confidence = higher spending. Additionally, these countries are going to be looking to fully re-open their economies (football games, bars, casinos, etc). With that, they'll be stuck between two options. One, keep their economy open to the US and risk a new outbreak (and thus the economic hit) or close their economy to the US and take the economic hit until the US gets the virus under control. Essentially, a travel ban of people traveling from the US (and other countries that don't have the virus under control - Russia, Canada, UK, etc in that list) could be possible. Another affect of this, which is more important for us, if the US has an uncontrolled spread of the virus, that means factories will be shut down at random (as an outbreak occurs in a factory) in the US for a period of 3-6 months where other country's factories are humming along. With a reduced demand rate, that creates a huge competitive advantage for other countries to provide reliable supply. That means that buyers of products will look for alternative supplies outside of US. This means that big businesses such as GM, BA, F, GE, etc lose long-term market share to competitors in other countries. This can hit other places such as entertainment where no new US movies are produced, and no US sports are produced. To me, this points to not just a slow L shaped recovery. It means that the GDP of the USA will be lower in 2021-22 than it was in 2019. Other countries (Japan, China, South Korea) could see a full recovery by the beginning of 2021. Tell me I'm wrong. I really want to know if I'm completely off base here.
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