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Build your opponent a golden bridge to retreat across.
Sun Tzu, Art of War
Everything was for tomorrow, but tomorrow never came. The present was only a bridge and on this bridge they are still groaning, as the world groans, and not one idiot ever thinks of blowing up the bridge.
Henry Miller, Tropic of Capricorn
I was wrong! Blow the bridge! Blow the fucking bridge!
Tugg Speedman, Tropic Thunder
Hello again GME Gang! It’s been a while since I last ranted at you, but I know we’ve been in some very good hands here at WSB with all the great DD folks have posted over the past few weeks. So no need for CPT Hubbard to go for 11 again on the Thumbscroll Dial (until today, that is). I’ve enjoyed a lot of these posts very much, so thank you on behalf of myself and the attention-deficient Rocket Children for continuing to deliver that 100% Chaff-Free GME-grade Wheat at such a feverish clip.
Now, I am going to get to Hong Kong’s Lamest Outlaw and his disconcertingly vacant eyes here shortly. But first I want to take you on a journey back to Christmas Eve, in the year of our lord 2020—a heady time in all our lives. We were all so young and innocent then, weren’t we? Fresh off the run up to 22. Blissfully oblivious that we were living in the last moments where the question What is The War of 1812? was the only acceptable Jeopardy question for the answer: The Last Time the Goddamn U.S. Capitol Was Stormed. This was also before we all became irresponsibly overleveraged in Cathie Wood’s Ornamental Gourds ETF. It was a wondrous, confusing time.
But before we get too off topic, let’s all hop in my 1985 DeLorean (purchased with proceeds from my Jan 15 calls – thanks RC!), fire up the ol’ Flux Capacitor, and get that shit to 88 because something happened that evening that is Worth Pondering—particularly in light of recent events. And just as a friendly reminder: even though you’re going back in time in a DeLorean, no one here has to deviate funds away from GME shares to Save the Clock Tower and you are under no obligation to fulfill a scenario where you wind up making out with your Mom (unless your Mom is Cathie Wood like mine—in which case maybe just some quick over-the-clothes stuff).
On the Subject of How It Once ‘Twas The Night Before Christmas
So what in the holy fuck happened on the night before Christmas, Captain? Well, while all you Gentiles were sleeping soundly after lying to your children about benign home intruders and before gorging yourself on the teat of late-stage capitalism, me and the rest of the Chosen People were up late eating Chinese food and thinking about tendies (self-hating Jew Joke! Ba-zing!). But then: when out on the electric twitter machine there arose such a clatter, I sprang to my phone to see what was the matter. And what to my wondering eyes did appear, a mysterious tweet from a Rich-Ass Viking who had a lot of fucking interesting things to say about this whole GME situation that’s what.
This tweet, buried as a reply to a tweet sent by Mr. Rod Alzmann (@RodAlzmann or u/Uberkikz11), simply said: “Merry Christmas. Shhh.” But it included this screen shot:
[**Image Deleted Due to the Mods - check the link below where someone transcribed it - I'll try to add later**]
Now, this tweet to Rod, sent late at night and likely after a strong Mead or three, was very promptly deleted. But your intrepid cub reporter saw this here tweet that night with his own two eyes—seeing as I am a degenerate GME addict and devoted follower of Mr. Rod Alzmann (Hi Rod!). And I took screenshots, of course, like any responsible records custodian might. And so did the dude who wrote a somewhat-overlooked WSB post on this, which included the most pertinent text of the message if you are having trouble reading it here:
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kk0omp/christmas_miracle_gamergate_2020_gme_shorts/
Now, what are we to make of this? At the time, I thought it was very interesting. But I did not give it too much attention seeing as how the internet is overcrowded with anonymous weirdos claiming to know more than they do about all sorts of subjects (and now I feel your judging eyes…). Also, there was some very good commentary in that WSB post from some sharp folks about the screenshot author’s questionable use of the shorthand PE/IB—given that private equity and investment banks wouldn’t apparently be involved in a behind-the-scenes transaction with the short funds like what was being discussed there (don’t ask me, I just string together silly words here). But maybe you poke around his Twitter a bit and see for yourself.
Still, plausibility assessments based on preferred nomenclature aside, it seemed to me that some version of that conversation had to be taking place behind the scenes in a situation like this—given the batshit insane short interest, the funds supposedly involved, and the rapid rise in SP coinciding with RC’s share accumulation, December 21st amended 13D filing, and new status as a GME Insider and Board member (just love saying all that in a row, don’t you?).
So the Viking’s screenshot tweet, and the very likely possibility that shorts are in so deep that they’re attempting to negotiate peace with large shareholders behind the scenes, stuck in my tiny little baby brain as a pretty plausible set of scenarios. And from the look of it, it seems like some funds were at least willing to discuss offering these shorts a Golden Bridge away from Certain Fucking Destruction on the open market. And if the words on the screenshot are at all aligned with reality, these short funds have no good options.
Yet it seems like they are still playing hardball to negotiate the carat on this generous bridge offer they’re getting. Why? Maybe they’ve been getting high on their own supply for so long and they don’t know how to see this situation for what it is. Who knows? Maybe there is no Ryan Cohen and we’re all living in a simulation. But if the recent low-rent anti-GME articles and market manipulation efforts we’re seeing are any indication, these overleveraged short fuckers seem to think they’re going to be able to spin out of this hold and drive the SP back down to even smaller peanuts than it’s at now by sheer force of will (and some deployment of well-honed tricks of the trade amirite?) to emerge unscathed. Or even victorious? I dunno—it’s their delusional fantasy sequence.
But do you know what this scenario reminds me of? And this is just coming to me so please bear with me as I’m not showing this to my editor before we print (I haven’t seen this movie in ages – don’t know what made me think of this!). Fuck it, I’m just gonna start riffing here. The shorts trying to thread this needle, against all odds and logic and common sense, reminds me of that hilarious scene in Dumb and Dumber where haplessly delusional Jim Carrey thinks he has a chance with Mary Samsonite Swanson. But the scene is funny because he really doesn’t. Have any chance. At all.
Now, I know this is a 1990s movie originally released on VHS that we haven’t seen it or even seen it referenced in ages. But now that you’re thinking of it again after all this time, doesn’t it remind you of this too? I know, I get it: You’d have to have fucking peanuts for brains for it not to.
(https://twitter.com/ryancohen/status/1350877969816956934?s=20)
On the Subject of the Continued Internet Bumbling of Mr. Justin Dopierala
Now that screenshot came to mind this past week when something kind of weird happened while we were all enjoying our quick rocket ship ride. And yes, we are briefly going to talk again about Seeking Alpha’s second finest pro-GME author (always been more of a Dmitriy man myself) and recurring CPT Hubbard character, Justin Dopierala (and no, Angela, I do not want to have like 10,000 of his babies).
Last Thursday, after we were all virtually high-fiving one another and counting our future Lambos, Mr. Justin Dopierala, head of Domo Capital and longstanding uber-bull GME shareholder and author at Seeking Alpha (last seen arguing pithily with our own Rod Alzmann about the conservative nature of Rod’s holiday earnings projections. Hi again Rod!), made it known that he sold all of Domo Capital’s 500,000 shares for around $42.50—at the very top of the run up last Thursday morning.
Now, Domo Capital’s business decisions are none of my goddamn business. And there are plenty of market opportunities right now. Shit, I hear there is even a new Cathie Wood Gourd ETF coming online soon that people are really excited about and that I’m sure Justin’s clients would find intriguing. But Domo’s decision to sell seemed curious given a few things: (1) on Wednesday, when the rocket is mid-flight, he got a twitter follow from Gabe Plotkin, head of Melvin Capital, which he promptly tweeted about with a “get a load of this fuckin’ guy” vibe (oh the sweet, intoxicating arrogance of tendie victory, I too love it so); (2) he had also tweeted that day comparing GME’s rise to Apron’s short squeeze that lasted 4 days—where he also stressed to his followers that Apron had a much lower SI than GME; and (3) he then promptly deleted all of these tweets and almost everything else GME-related on Thursday after apparently introducing 500,000 shares of liquidity into the height of a stressed market up and through the Thursday reversal and down into his own personal tendie town.
Now, after seeing all this, I mouthed off a bit to Justin on the electric twitter machine because that’s kind of my thing. And if you are familiar with my prior ramblings, you know that he and I go way back. In response, Justin talked a bit of shit about your intrepid cub reporter here in a comment on Dimitry Kozin’s October 21, 2020 article about a possible sony revenue share deal or something, the comment section of which has become the preferred SA water cooler over there. (And I can’t link that because Thems The Rulez). And Justin hurt my little feelings a bit with his very sharp denial. And by all means have at it over there to check out his comment about why he sold if you give a shit. That is if Justin hasn’t deleted it yet. Free country and all.
But to summarize, on the subject of treacherous coordination with Melvin Capital, Justin said he would not could not in a boat and he would not could not with a goat. And I for one believe him. And do you know why? Because even though Justin seems like a very smart guy in some ways, he’s also a well-known internet bumbler who blurts out things to his internet friends that a person with better self-control would keep to themselves. And so I do not think he is capable of pulling that off or keeping a secret like that. Also: he said he didn’t so I am more than willing to give someone the benefit of any doubt in that area and you should too. I think we keep Hanlon’s razor firmly in mind here about never attributing to malice that which is explained by stupidity. That is unless, of course, you’re Andrew Left and you’re actually trying to convince people that you didn’t realize there was a US presidential inauguration planned for the same time you announced your Super Important TeeVee Yammerfest ‘21 about GME not being a good candidate for an imminent short squeeze no way no how not if my name isn’t Andrew Left short seller expert extraordinaire and Hong Kong’s Most Misunderstood Ethically-Minded Businessman. You can ascribe the fuck out of malice to that one.
No, even though I really have no idea, I think the most likely thing that happened there was that Gabe Plotkin, Master of the Universe, Head of Melvin Capital, and Acolyte of Perennial Most Ethical Business Man MVP candidate, Steven Cohen—got into Justin’s head when Plotkin followed him on twitter during the 57% (at one point 94%) day last Wednesday and then Justin got a bit chippy about it.
And this is the real reason I’m bringing this up.
Because I honestly care very little about the Nervous Investing Habits of the Wisconsin hedge fund voted most likely to prompt a Mr. Roboto reference. No: I think that Gabe Plotkin sent a message with that follow. Without even ever having to say it directly. And I think that after GME’s huge run and getting a little overexcited while working the twitter machine, Justin maybe had a chance to relax with a warm glass of milk that night and reflect on that message. Which I believe was: I’m watching you, motherfucker. And the only reason I’m paying any attention to some shitstain Wisconsin pseudo-fund on a day like today when I am getting my ass fucking torched is because I want you to know that if this GME shit blows up on me, I’m going to fuck your ass up. I will remember the name Domo Capital forevermore. And when you least expect me, I’ll be there. Now: your move, motherfucker.
And once I realized what might have happened there, that made me feel kinda bad for Justin if he felt that way. Definitely a puss move because fuck you Plotkin I drink your fucking milkshake, right? But bad because that’s a mean message for a business colleague to send, Gabriel. Shame on you if that's how you roll like a big New York bully and scaring our poor Justin like that. And if you just wanted to follow him to shoot the shit or swap listicles and Star Wars Prequel memes with a respected contemporary—even in the very midst of getting fucking annihilated while short GME—well Justin has a totally different account for that and he’s not allowed to access it during work hours.
On The Likelihood That The Most Heavily Shorted Stock in History Is Not Being Subject to Continued Market Manipulation When A Steve Cohen Acolyte Is Losing His Fucking Shirt
Have you heard about Steve Fucking Cohen? The guy who looks like he’s tip top of the list of the premier Hollywood casting agency’s rolodex for Saddest Dipshit Still At the Strip Club After Everyone Else Has Already Gone Home? I’m sorry, that’s mean and my mother told me to always be kind to the truly hideous looking because they’re probably still beautiful on the inside (spoiler alert: he’s not!).
Get a load of this guy:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-01-02/why-sac-capitals-steven-cohen-isnt-in-jail
https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-09-02/controversial-hedge-fund-billionaire-steven-cohen-takes-on-hollywood
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/steven-a-cohen-among-the-million-dollar-donors-to-trump-inauguration-2017-04-19
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/11/steve-cohen-trump
https://nypost.com/2015/06/17/billionaire-steve-cohen-bros-out-with-guy-fieri/
Are you back? I’ve missed you. That was scary, wasn’t it? But allow me to TL/DR all that for you who decided to avoid all that unpleasantness: the dude just has all this bad luck and keeps finding himself into these really awkward situations where someone could potentially question his commitment to ethical business and life practices as well as adherence to the laws of the United States and it’s just not fair and nothing’s fair and Nice Guy Steve Cohen Is The Victim Here So Just Stop Right There Mister I See What You’re Doing. He's also bros with Guy Fieri. Cool.
But why am I talking about a guy who would so clearly pass Billy Madison’s Final Question about Business Ethics without even breaking a sweat?
Because Steve Cohen once had a young Ace Protegee that he loved very much. With the name of an Archangel, so tender and pure. And one day this young man decided he wanted to Prove Himself and Leave Steve’s Nest. And thus was born Melvin Capital, seeded financially by Steve Cohen but named after famed Crooner Melvin H. Tormé, which Gabe’s esteemed mentor Steve would play in his office, over and over, all those years ago.
Now let’s fast forward a bit because I’m boring myself with all that fucking Cohen reading (the bad Cohen—don’t you dare get anyone confused here). As I was saying: Gabe Plotkin, head of Melvin Capital, has by all accounts gotten himself into a bit of a pickle here being so deeply short GME. Lots of people have analyzed and overanalyzed it, and I’m not going to do it again here; that dead horse is well and truly beaten. But to bottom line it: we’re all just staring down what is essentially an unprecedented math problem that will, at some point, resolve itself. And if it revolves itself in favor of the Good Guys, then the Bad Guys will lose a Fuck-ton of Money. That’s your money block quote, WSJ, so fuck off and stop calling me.
Now: picture yourself as a Steve Cohen acolyte that just bought a $44M Miami Compound and who cannot stop talking about how co-owning the Charlotte Hornets is worth it just for the courtsides alone bro once basketball is a thing again and so what if Michael Jordan keeps calling him Gary it’s close enough. Are you feeling the most financially secure that you have ever felt in your young rich life right about now? Or might you be a wee bit worried that you’ve pursued an investment thesis so reckless, so irrationally and intentionally destructive of equity, that even Melvin H. Tormé himself must be rolling in his fucking grave that you would ever dare put at risk your ability to continue being Michael Jordan’s Gary?
And so here is when I again link my good buddy Jim Cramer’s Great Unveiling of the Tactics Deployed by Short Sellers hoping to change the narrative and construct a “new truth” to suppress the SP in the face of, oh, let’s just say: a very promising turnaround story in a high-growth industry by an e-Commerce Canadian Genius who does not fuck around and who knows what he’s fucking doing and aims to sell more and better video games experiences to crackhead video gamers and there’s a million things he wants to do but just you wait, just you wait.
Is this plot that hard to follow?
And I’ll also say this: I know fuck-all about monitoring order flows or how funds continue to create synthetic shares to short shit into oblivion. But I’m just stepping back and thinking of the broader narrative and tactics on this. Spit-balling here again—bear with me. Now, if you were massively short a security while paying out your ass in borrowing fees for the privilege of entering the most crowded short trade in the market and you’re now opposite a massive business turnaround story, Ryan Cohen, numerous institutions, funds, retail whales, Norwegian HNW Freemason Consortiums, and the energy behind the Finest Rocket Children Ever to Grace Planet Fucking Earth—and you’re taking it in the ass week after week here—Do you then play this straight? Do you set aside all of these illegal and deceptive short tactics Jim Cramer candidly outlines in that video even though they’re impossible to enforce and are in fact not enforced? That Jim basically says you’d be professionally negligent if you were short and didn’t do this shit because fuck it whosgonnastopyou? And now you fucked up and that steamroller is barreling down upon you and there are all these things you could theoretically do try to get yourself out of this jam if you were That Kind of Person? Do you set this all aside and, at least in Jim’s view, tie one hand behind your precious ethical back? On the most heavily shorted stock off all time where you are bleeding Real Life Big-Boy Money? Just buying and selling you know, just a job, honest living, nothing much to it, sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, can't get too carried away with it.
Or is it something a little bit fucking different than that?
I don’t know. I’m not in the industry myself. And I would never accuse anyone of doing anything so clearly contrary to the values upon which their professional career as Master of the Universe was built. So Gabe: chill. Don’t follow me or something on twitter man, since for all I know that’s Plotkinese for I Hope You Don’t Mind Sleeping With This Severed Horse Head in Your Bed Motherfucker. It’s just money, dude. You seem pretty well taken care of. But man would I be sweating if I were short right now staring down the barrel of your new neighbor Ryan Cohen’s whims and patience and polite Canadian manners and ambiguous emojis that we all lose our shit for. I mean, fuck man: are you ok? Don’t forget to exercise and eat well during all this. Maybe switch to green tea or something. And remember: you’ll always—always—be Michael Jordan’s Gary.
But here is where we return to our good friend Andrew Left from Citron Research.
Do you remember the excitement you felt this past weekend? I’ve never seen WSB so jacked. People were coming out hot on Tuesday—an uptick day! The new phone book’s here! The new phone book's here! What luck to be free of Gary’s tomfoolery for one fine day. And then GME spiked right away—reaching a high of over $45 that morning.
But then something happened. We all know what it was. But here is where any SEC lookie-loos need to close those Pornhub links and pay closer attention. Because in the moments before the Citron tweet that morning about Andy’s upcoming BuzzFeed Listicle call on Why GME is Scary Investment GRRRR, total short shares available dropped from 1.2M to 0. And a $300K put bet was placed on a weekly with a strike price well over 10% out of the money at the very moment that GME’s price was accelerating rapidly. (H/t u/FatAspirations). That’s some WSB-level shit right there.
And yet they pull it off! GME immediately shoots down nearly 30% intraday, and eventually climbing abck up above 10%, making us all feel a little weird and like ungrateful millennial brats for feeling so shitty about a 10% day. But we all know what fucking happened, now don’t we?
So what can we say about ol’ Andy? Now, many of you know Andy as the dumbshit who shorted TSLA until he was ground into little bits of dumb dumb dust and made to look ever so foolish over and over again until he finally cried drunk uncle and flipped to being long TSLA and now he’s cool to you or whatever. Or you might know him as the guy who puts out really shoddy research that often, by pure happenstance, drives a new narrative to control the orderflow and SP on a WSB-beloved security like PLTR? You know the guy I’m talking about. Once in hot pursuit by Hong Kong fuzz, an International Man of Obviousness with a face that says: why yes, I will have another vodka tonic thankyouverymuch. That’s him.
Well, just like future call-back candidate for the role of Frightened Inmate #2, Mr. Steve Cohen, Andy is also but a Caveman—frightened and confused by your modern concepts of “ethics” and “rules.” No! No!—He’s a straight shooter! Devoted to rooting out obvious frauds, like Lukin Coffee and TSLA (Do not fuck with Elon or my Hot Mom’s ETF, Andy). And like the aspirations of Antoine Bugle Boy when he entered the blue jeans market, Andy saw an overcrowded short trade here based on an overly simplistic and obsolete short thesis about GME and said: “Me Too!” And as this thing is ripping to the stratosphere, Andy starts ringing his dumb dumb twitter bell and saying hear ye, hear ye—Inauguration Day and time it shall be for all my Big Brain thoughts about GME!
Nothing weird about that. No sir.
So Andy Citron or whatever the fuck his name is will be putting out some dumbshit video or something today in what seems to be a pretty clear attempt to scare my poor Rocket Children and get those pesky computers to high frequency this shit to drive the SP down to more acceptable loss levels (cause let’s be honest: they’re still taking a fucking bath here) for Mel Tormé’s namesake hedgefund and all the other cretins that are dug into short position here. And they’re gonna try to scare ya’ with the color red! And they know that no one here likes the color red.
But do see what’s going on here and who we’re dealing with. This really ain’t rocket science, Rocket Children. The dude actually tried to claim he forgot about the Inauguration. In 2021. He has not been in a coma, to the best of my knowledge. But you do look a little bleary eyed, Andy. Must have been all that staying up super late working on those last few bullet points to fill out the powerpoint on that GME listicle of yours, eh sport?
Conclusion: On the Subject of Patience and The Arc of The Universe Bending Toward Ryan Fucking Cohen
In my youth there was a period of time where I went out on boats that would drop crates into the waters of the Arctic. Bundled inside them were raw pieces of meat. In the coming days the boats would head back out to the frigid seas, hook the floats bobbing upon the waters, and pull the crates up. Packed inside would be many crabs. They were so delicious & made a good price at market. The difference between the crate that was empty and the create full of bounty was a mystery even the great physicist Erwin Schrödinger pondered at much length.
But the hearty fishermen of my youth already knew the answer long ago. Why did the trap fill up? Time. In time, all traps fill. In time, all things pondered shall be revealed.
--The Fucking Viking, That’s Who
Now look, you all know I have a soft spot for Ryan Cohen. Hell, we all do. He’s a good dude. And the man has played this flawlessly so far. He really has. The fact that we are all sitting here with Ryan Cohen having successfully negotiated three seats on the Board—a bloodless coup as my man Rod Alzmann says—here in January? It’s amazing. His vision for GME is dialed-the-fuck in and extremely exciting. This misunderstood business is on the threshold of an exciting turnaround with Ryan Cohen at the helm. And though I was very much looking forward to the potential repercussions of a vote being called at the annual meeting and what that might mean for the short-term share price, this result is infinitely better. Whatever their motivations, that Board and George Sherman saw the writing on the wall here and accepted the Golden Bridge that Ryan offered them. And Ryan Cohen has done everything he’s set out to do here. And he’s clearly been having fun while doing it. Read up on the guy at some point if you haven’t–there’s lots of good DD out there on him, obviously. And while you’re reading and thinking about Ryan Cohen, think also about guys like Steve Cohen (no fucking relation) and Gabe Plotkin and Andy Left and how lucky we are that we get to roll with RC against that motley crew of fuckwads.
And do you know what? I’m guessing that RC, and maybe even the funds being discussed in that screenshot, have been very patient with Mr. Plotkin et al in recent weeks. You don’t go around bankrupting hedge funds willy nilly, you know--bad form and all that old chap. People tend to remember that. And guys like Steve Cohen and Gabe Plotkin seem like they play for keeps. So now you try to build them a Golden Bridge to cross—maybe not their preferred route of travel, but could be worse and all that, right guys? But for whatever reason it seems like the natural instinct here on the short side is fight over flight. And these short FUD tactics are getting increasingly ridiculous to help slow down the inevitable march toward the detonator right next to that bridge. So relax everyone! And let’s not fool ourselves: All those Masters of the Universes are well aware of the math problem they’re all facing here and they must have a vague grasp of the odds that this goes off in one direction over the other. And what that could mean for the size of their money pits and how many sports teams they can buy this year. Shit, I assume Steve Cohen is counseling his young acolyte about how many sads he himself felt deep down in his man heart on that fateful day in 2008 when he lost $250M on a short when Volkswagon squeezed to infinity—a sadness that he will continue to draw on when his agent finally finds him a role that calls for it.
But my point is: the longs here can afford to be patient and let this play out. When this thing moves, the Viking’s Schrödinger crabs will only be in one pot. And I’m guessing that pot is the one being held by the guy who is actually in total control here: Ryan Goddamn Cohen.
So enjoy the show today. If you’re anything like me, you’re feeling relaxed after gorging yourself on lucky space peanuts all week.(https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/news/10022/lucky-peanuts/)
And though these silly wabbits with their cumbersome FUD efforts can get a bit tiresome, I’m still very much enjoying this GME show at this point and almost do not want it to end—what with all these Sorkin-esque twists and turns and my Cohen Tweet Decorder Ring getting all this sweet action.
But just remember who Ryan Cohen is, what he cares about, and what, so far, he has told us he intends to do here. And then you might realize, as I have, that Ryan Cohen has had the Gray’s Sports Almanac here all along. This story has already been written. He’s already won. And Melvin Capital’s Schrödinger-ass crabs are dead as fuck. The only question now is: what causes that Golden Bridge to blow? I, for one, am content to wait on RC while counting my good fortune that I can continue to accumulate until whatever happens here happens. So pass the rocket peanuts.
It’s just money after all. Right Gabe?
TL/DR: Psst: a Mysterious Viking once told me about behind-the-scenes Golden Bridge negotiations that are likely taking place that give shorts no chance but the shorts seem to think they’re saying there’s a chance but there really is no chance; Gabe Plotkin, Steve Cohen and Andy Left are misunderstood Straight Shooters who probably answer typical interview questions about their own perceived weaknesses by saying “Sometimes I just care too much about doing the right thing”; and Ryan Cohen is the Goddamn Man so we can all relax and not worry so much about all this dumb short FUD bullshit, ok? OK. 🚀🚀🚀
**If you construe any of the above as investment advice without doing your own DD or at least Googling Ryan Cohen then you are a fucking idiot and may God have mercy on your soul. You too, Andy.

UFC 258 Fight Predictions

Hello everyone!
I apologise sincerely for the delay in predictions this week, I had a lot happening, Blood tests for glucose levels and such, a Job interview, overall not feeling super well, but I didn't want to let you guys down.
This is a fun card, not an amazingly stacked card, but a fun one, and an end to the question "Can two team mates destroy each other in the Octagon?".
(c) - Champ
(D) - Debut
FLS - Fight Lose Streak
FWS - Fight Win Streak
NS - No Streak
(#x) - Rank in Division
Lets go!
Prelims
Women’s Flyweight
Gillian Robertson (#13) (9-5-0, NS) v Miranda Maverick (8-2-0, 6 FWS) - This is an incredible match up. Robertson is a savage, one of the most underrated and dangerous submission artists in the division who hasn’t really gotten a strong hold on climbing the ranks. Regardless of her record, she has an excellent ground game, she works incredibly hard to get the fight to the ground, and when she does, she instantly works for a submission position, and most of the time, that works and her opponents succumb to pressure and present their neck or limb. Now, a lot of her opponents are aware of the threats on the ground and now work to avoid and defend takedowns, and thus keep the fight on the feet. This is key for Maverick, and I firmly believe that Maverick can quickly outpower Robertson, she’s an incredibly physically strong fighter who has great power in her hands, and being so young in her career. She has made great strides in her career since her debut in Invicta in which she dominated most of her fights. She has pretty effective striking, and she throws leather when needed, but most of her best work is done on the ground, she’s a very good submission artist and even though she’s probably not going to force the fight to the ground against a great grappler like Robertson, she would know how to get out of submission positions and work back to the feet. I love Robertson, she’s an animal, but she’s relatively one dimensional, and I love what I see in Miranda. So, another hype train i'm gonna ride for a little longer…
Maverick via KO R2
Welterweight
Gabe Green (9-3-0, NS) v Philip Rowe (D) (7-2-0, 7 FWS) - This is a great fight between two newcomers, Green had a fantastic debut against Rodriguez, and even though he did lose, he did manage to put on an incredible performance, he even came in as a late replacement so this wasn’t a full camp performance and yet he still landed 120 plus strikes, and he ate shots from Daniel Rodrigeuz for 15 minutes, it was a beautiful, violent fight. I love how Green fights, he has an interesting defensive shell and he gives off a lot of different looks that allowed him to land a few decent shots on Rodriguez. Green will no doubt look a little bit different this time around because he has had a full camp and is more prepared for this fight. Rowe has turned around his career since his two back to back losses at the start of his professional career. Nothing but submissions and knockouts on his record, but in regards to this fight, he has one major advantage and that’s his reach, he’s very long, and has a 7.5 inch reach advantage, if he can avoid the pressure of Green (and Green is the type of fighter to push forward nonstop), and maybe take the fight to the ground, I can see Rowe getting a slick submission in, because from what I can see when it comes to Green’s chin, it’s pretty damn solid. So the best bet for Rowe in my opinion is to take it to the ground, and slip in a choke.
Rowe via Sub R2
Featherweight
Ricky Simon (17-3-0, 2 FWS) v Brian Kelleher (22-11-0, NS) - Any fight that has Ricky Simon in it, sign me up to watch it end to end because Simon is a specimen. I could easily copy and paste what i wrote about Simon when he fought Pirrello, but this time it’s a little bit different, it’s at featherweight and he will no doubt be carrying more mass, exuding more energy when he throws punches, or slams opponents, and that’s a bit dangerous when coming against someone who has fought in Featherweight beforehand in Kelleher, but the skillset and the power will still be there, i’m just weary about his cardio, Simon has excellent cardio at Bantamweight, but at Featherweight that’s a whole different question. Simon is incredible at creating pressure and throwing everything he has into every round, wild striking, vicious wrestling and a non-stop pace that is as exhausting for us as it is for his opponent, and that’s a good thing. Simon is facing a very durable and experienced, well rounded fighter in Kelleher though. Kelleher has an interesting array of techniques, with his signature, most mastered technique being a guillotine, but his stance (a somewhat blocky wrestling/striking hybrid) allows him to stand firm, defend any takedowns and throw hard, and with Kellehers proclivity to takedown and wrestle, his stance also allows him to dip and level change effortlessly, he’s a very good wrestler as well so he has a huge variety of weapons he can use to defeat Simon, but honestly, i’m still riding a Simon hype train, and I feel like by the time Kelleher throws something, Simon would be somewhere else, out of view and attacking, Simon is fast, durable, exceptionally well rounded and always entertains. Lets go Simon!
Simon via UD
Catchweight (140)
Andre Ewell (17-6-0, 2 FWS) v Chris Gutierrez (15-3-2, NS) - This is an interesting match up. Ewell is someone who a lot of people kinda overlook because of how talent rich the division is, but if there’s one thing you need to keep an eye out for with Ewell, it’s his volume, he just throws, and throws, and throws. He is a kickboxer at heart, and his length and range allow him to adjust his style of attacking to fit the situation. He can keep at bay aggressive fighters by hitting then evading, he can push forward relatively aggressively, but he’s somewhat smart about his range whenever he strikes. His left straight is by far his best weapon, but he does have one flaw, and that is he looks maybe too loose on the feet at times, if you look at the Jonathan Martinez fight, you’ll notice that he was milliseconds away from being cleanly hit by Martinez’s super fast kicks, you can’t take that risk when you fight someone like Gutierrez. Gutierrez is a powerful striker, everything he throws is just… dangerous, and sharp, and has the shortest travel time from Point A to B, it’s pretty awesome to watch him get loose in the octagon, landing heavy leg kicks, body kicks, combo’s, anything really, The way he methodically dismantled Morales was beautiful, those leg kicks were powerful, landing in the same spot over and over again. Gutierrez landed 36 leg kicks in that fight I believe. He had a gameplan and he followed it through. He will need to do the same to disable the aggression from Ewell, chop at those legs, bring Ewells hands lower than they sometimes already are, then target the head. That’s what I feel like will happen.
Gutierrez via KO R3
Women’s Strawweight
Polyana Viana (11-4-0, NS) v Mallory Martin (7-3-0, NS) - Odd little tidbit I noticed, this is the second Strawweight fight of 2021, both the Bantamweight and Flyweight divisions have way more fights, so i’m glad Strawweight is getting a little bit of love. Viana is a great submission artist, she’s always looking for the fight to go to the ground so she can work her magic, Viana is like a snake on the ground, always finding the better positions to fire off a few submission attempts, and whilst her striking isn’t exactly clean or effective, that threat of being knocked out is always going to be there. Martin has a solid stand up game, she’s got decent striking and mixes her attacks very well, and I strongly feel that she will want to keep this fight standing otherwise she’s going to get outworked on the ground. I’m not too sure about who is going to win this fight though, if it goes to the ground Viana has a solid chance of getting the win, but Mallory is a tough striker to beat, and I’m not too sure if Viana will want to risk a striking exchange. This could be a methodical, boring fight, i’m not too hype about this fight, but overall i’ll be leaning on Martin to win.
Martin via UD
Welterweight
Dhiego Lima (15-7-0, 3 FWS) v Belal Muhammad (#15) (17-3-0, 3 FWS) - An incredible match up to start this event. Lima is a super tough fighter, and whilst he hasn’t had a finish in quite a while, he still puts on pretty decent performances. Recently his performances haven’t been super good, throwing but not landing, grappling seems to be his main weapon, but with how inactive Lima has been, and how sporadic his fighting timeline has been, it’s pretty hard to see too many positives in comparison to the rise that Belal Muhammad has had in recent years. Muhammad is an animal at the moment, his style makes it very difficult to take him on, or even read him. He has two major threats for most of his opponents, his wrestling and his powerful, crashing right hand. He typically dips to level change but then launches that right hand. His wrestling is incredible and he is quite controlling when it comes to the ground game. Everything about Belal is something I like to see in a developing fighter. I can see Lima getting hit brutally over and over with those power right hands, then taken down and eventually submitted.
Muhammad via Sub R3
Middleweight
Rodolfo Vieira (7-0-0, 7 FWS) v Anthony Hernandez (7-2-0, NS) - A very interesting fight, and it’s always good to see an undefeated heavy favourite put his streak on the line. Vieira is a submission specialist, not a submission artist, a specialist, that’s a whole different level of whoa. Over 100 grappling bouts, multiple gold medals and tournament wins, Vieira is one of the most accredited grapplers that the UFC has at the moment, that’s still young and still has a chance to show off his striking, but holy crap he’s a solid grappler… he won 5 championships in 3 years, that’s not only impressive, but on a whole different level of skill. He’s called the Black Belt Hunter for a reason and well, Hernandez is going to go to sleep if he’s not careful. Hernandez has had a rough time in the UFC, and i’m hoping they’re giving him this fight not to beef up Vieira, but to give Hernandez an excuse to stay in the UFC. Hernandez has had some decent wins in his career, but most of those wins were in LFA. In the UFC he hasn’t been too successful, his recent loss against Holland kinda showed me that he isn’t great at being pressured, and if Vieira pushes forward, works hard for a takedown and absolutely dominates from there, I don’t see Hernandez getting the upper hand on the ground, he has a punchers chance but I mean… Vieira is a phenom at the moment, a rare addition to the UFC and i’m on the train, first class tickets!
Vieira via Sub R1
Main Card
Middleweight
Julian Marquez (7-2-0, NS) v Maki Pitolo (13-7-0, 2 FLS) - It’s a shame that 2020 was a horrible year for Pitolo. Marquez is coming back from a 2 year hiatus, after suffering a heavy loss at the hands of Alessio Di Chirico, or as we now probably call him, the Hype Train Derailer. Marquez is a powerhouse, he explodes and lands incredibly hard, he has insane power in his hands and everything he does has that extra oomph that you can probably hear in a full arena. Marquez however is somewhat one dimensional with his style, he loves to strike, he loves chaos and hates order, and that’s going to be dangerous for Pitolo because numerous times we’ve seen Pitolo succumb to pressure. Pitolo is a mad man, don’t get me wrong, he has insane striking, he’s wild, a showman and someone who you really want to see fight for a while, but he can’t go one on one against Marquez and think “i’ll just go wild”, he needs to keep Marquez pushing him for the first round, see where the cardio holds up (I don’t think Marquez has much cardio because of how explosive he is), and then start attacking him in the second or third, but again, it’s hard for me to tell how good a returning fighter is cardio wise, so this is a very rough prediction. I’m leaning on the Cuban Missile Crisis to win this one though.
Marquez via KO R1
Lightweight
Bobby Green (27-11-1, NS) v Jim Miller (32-15-0, NS) - Green is lowkey one of my most favourite fighters, the amount of work he does in the octagon is pretty impressive, especially when you watch his fight against Vannata, that fight will go down as a classic I can assure you. Green has gorgeous boxing, he’s incredibly crisp and fast with his punches, and he has his wrestling to add even more frustration and drain his opponents of their gas. Green had one set back during 2020 and that was against the incredibly talented Thiago Moises. Green has every skill that one would need to succeed in the UFC, especially with his crisp boxing and head movement, he’s going to be a dangerous fighter for Miller who has a more grapple heavy approach. Miller has had some significant wins over his very extensive career, recently submitting Clay Guida, Roosevelt Roberts and Jason Gonzalez to name a few, Miller is a dangerous, dangerous grappler, he can strike though but not to great efficiency, he mostly uses his striking to set up a takedown, where he does his most effective work. Miller is on a rough run at the moment, ever since losing to Anthony Pettis, or even prior to that against Poirier, he hasn’t really strung together any major streaks, a win here and there, but nothing to great significance, and since this is the Lightweight division we’re talking about, significance is important. I have Green in this fight, he can keep this fight on the feet, keep at a distance and keep striking, he’ll win this one.
Green via UD
Middleweight
Kelvin Gastelum (#11) (16-6-0, 3 FLS) v Ian Heinisch (#15) (14-3-0, NS) - This is going to be beautiful. Gastelum has incredible boxing, he’s the only one that gave Israel Adesanya trouble on the feet by using his beautiful pressure and interesting hopping technique that got him into range. Gastelum is on a losing streak but he has faced incredibly tough challenges. He went to war with Adesanya, he fought a highly technical bout against Till and has now lost to the submission artist in Hermansson. He is now facing the wild and explosive Ian Heinisch, which is going to be a brutally tough fight because Heinisch is pretty damn aggressive and has explosive takedowns that come with his explosive strikes, overall, Heinisch is an explosive dude and a perfect matchup for a methodical and tactical boxer like Gastelum. Heinisch is someone who is always improving, so there’s no doubt that what you saw in 2020 will be what you get in 2021 and more. That makes me wonder what his game plan will be, whether he will come in with a wrestling heavy approach to negate the power that Gastelum has on his feet, or if he’ll be incredibly aggressive and keep Gastelums back glued to the fence. Either way, Heinisch is going to be unpredictable, and I think it will be a true test of what Gastelum can accomplish if he can handle Heinisch. This is a great fight, one that I don’t want to overtalk this fight because well, it’s hard predicting a fighter on a losing streak, to win, i’ve done that one too many times (Michael Johnson being the most recent one) and it didn’t turn out how I expected… So this is a risky prediction, but War Gastelum!
Gastelum via KO R2
Co-Main Event
Women’s Flyweight
Maycee Barber (#9) (8-1-0, NS) v Alexa Grasso (12-3-0, NS) - An interesting fight to say the least. Barber is coming off a heavy loss and a horrible injury to her knee, so there’s a lot of variables coming into this fight. Barber has always been an incredibly aggressive and tough fighter, she pushes forward, launching punch after punch that can overwhelm her opponents, she put away Robertson very effectively, bloodied up Cifers and destroyed Aldrich. She’s no doubt still a prospect and if she can get past Grasso then that certifies her prospect status in the Flyweight division. The one thing i'm worried about is her knee… It was probably her first ever injury and that would hang on your mind for quite a while. Barber is going to have to get past the excellent boxing of Grasso if she is to win this one though, and that’s going to be pretty tough. Grasso has made her rounds in the UFC before, facing pretty much every up and comer that the UFC threw at her, Grasso is yet to get a solid winning streak going and her main weakness seems to be her ground game, She doesn’t have the best takedown defence, nor the best defensive submissions, her main style is her boxing, and if she can avoid the ground with Barber and keep the fight on the feet, I can see Grasso getting the upper hand. But Barber is a solid, solid prospect and one minor setback isn’t going to hurt her. Barber is still a very promising fighter and i’m gonna lean on her a little bit longer.
Barber via UD
Main Event
Welterweight Championship bout
Kamaru Usman (c) (17-1-0, 16 FWS) v Gilbert Burns (#4) (19-3-0, 6 FWS) - A fight that we all needed to see. Every match up has happened but this one. Usman is an athletic freak, he’s one of the most durable and strongest welterweights in the division right now, his wrestling is incredible, his striking is somewhat great, his cardio is neverending, and he has defeated the best the welterweight division has to offer, all but one. So many people think Usman is boring, the whole footstomp meme is everywhere this week and whilst it’s a good chuckle, I feel like some people are sleeping on the potential that this guy has. There is so much story behind this fight, training partners, Usman leaving his own gym to train with Wittman (which is a pretty great substitute), we might see a change in style from Usman, because I highly doubt he will wrestle with Burns considering Burns is one of the best BJJ practitioners in the welterweight division. I feel like Usman will try to trade hands with Burns, or at least grapple against the fence but not on the ground. Burns is one of the most improved fighters of the division, he was mostly a submission artist but in the last year or two, we have seen him become far more comfortable on the feet, and that throws off a lot of his opponents. His ability to change and adapt, and include striking to his skillset is second to none the best change I have seen in a fighter. It’s kinda like when Gaethje finally learnt to become patient and we saw an upgrade to Gaethje’s skill set. This is what is happening to Burns at the moment, we are seeing a newborn striker who carries significant power and isn’t afraid to show it. This is a super tough fight to predict. Both fighters have a solid chance of winning… but I feel like Usman will be holding onto that gold a little longer. I’m feeling a little ballsy with this prediction.
Usman via KO R4
And that's it!
Again, sorry for the late predictions, been a stupid crazy week.
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Matched Betting Extra Place Horse Racing - January 21 Profits - £4,707 on top of Full Time Job

Juicy's First Official 2021 NFL Mock Draft (3 Rounds). Trades At The Top. Pick By Pick Analysis Continued In Comments.

Trades:
Broncos trade 2021 RD1#12, 2021 RD4 #105 and 2022 RD1 for Cowboys 2021 RD1#4
Panthers trade 2021 RD1#7 and 2021 RD4 #102 and 2022 RD4 for Chargers 2021 RD1#5
Jaguars Trade 2021 Rd1#25 and 2021 RD3#66 for Raiders 2021 RD1#25
The 49ers trade 2021 RD2 #47, 2022 4th and Jimmy Garapolo for Patriots 2021 RD2 #46 and 2022 RD6
Steelers Trade 2021 RD2#64, 2021 RD4#128 and 2021 RD7#239 for Seahawks 2021 RD2#58
Football Team trades 2021 RD3 #75 and 2021 RD4 #106 for Seahawks 2021 RD2 #64
Seahawks Trade 2021 RD4 #122 and 2022 RD4 Via Jets for Packers 2021 RD3 #93
Steelers trade 2021 Rd3 #96 and Conditional 2022 Pick (2nd or 3rd) For Jets QB Sam Darnold
1. *Jets*- Trevor Lawrence-QB-Clemson
Sometimes you just don’t need to overthink it. Darnold’s failure in the Garden State wasn’t his own fault but you don’t pass on free, generational QBs like Lawrence. While you can try to get cute and make cases for Fields, Lance or Wilson, you really shouldn’t, especially with the 2021 scheme still TBD. Lawrence has the arm talent, IQ, athleticism, size and character to fit well in any scheme and any coaching staff. His only weakness I see is a reckless streak to force balls to his first option through tight windows. IMO this is simply a result of being more talented than the competition, throwing to receivers more talented than the opposition and having better scheming than the opposition. It should go away with NFL reps. Slam dunk pick. It’s time to bring sunshine to the garden state.
2. *Jaguars*- Justin Fields-QB-Ohio St
For as poor as their record is, the Jags actually have some pretty good pieces to build around. This has to be one of the youngest teams in football and with Coughlin gone, maybe they can actually start bringing in free agents and keeping stars in house. James Robinson, Laviska Shenualt, DJ Chark and a surprisingly good interior O-line lead by a potential all-pro in Brandon Linder give the offense a good baseline to build around. Give Justin Fields some good protection, an emerging young RB who can catch passes, an OC who can scheme first reads into space and a playmaking receiving group and we have a good chance to do something. For my money, Fields is the most accurate QB in the class and arguably the best at grasping route-tree concepts. Like Lawrence, he struggles to come off of his first read at times and for very similar reasons, though in his case it leads to less yolo balls and more tucking and running while second reads run free. He will need reps to come off of this, but in a quick-hitting system with playmakers, he could really hit the ground running.
3. *Bengals*- Penei Sewell-OT-Oregon
This pick is the easiest in the entire draft. Best LT I’ve personally scouted coming out to a team that needs it more than any other team, with an injured 1-1 QB who looked every bit the part in his rookie year. If it were any more obvious, Avril Lavigne would write a song about it.
4. *Broncos Via Cowboys*- Zach Wilson-QB-BYU
Either John Elway’s good will in Denver will be good enough to get him one last shot at drafting his QB, or a new regime will come in and want to draft their own QB. Either way, a new QB is coming, which is exciting given that they actually have some really good pieces on offense. Going with the idea that Elway remains, I can see Elway falling in love with either guy, likely seeing more of himself in Wilson, but Lance likely blowing him away in interviews and more importantly being slightly taller. In the end, while I have Lance rated higher, I think Elway will want to go the perceived safer route in Wilson, who is still a high ceiling player in his own right and has experience playing at high altitudes for BYU. Either way, I think Denver trading into the top 5 for a QB is one of the biggest locks of the draft. Dallas has a plethora of needs, but a healthy Dak Prescott has looked like a top 5 QB in recent years and is simply too good to walk away from. Since I have CB as their top need and Sewell off of the board, it makes sense for them to grab draft capital and still likely land a top 2-3 CB.
5. *Panthers Via Chargers*- Trey Lance-QB-NDSU
With Wilson off of the board, the Panthers pay a slight price to flip with the Chargers and ensure they get their QB. While I have Lance rated higher than Wilson for most teams, I actually slightly prefer Wilson in Carolina if they got their choice, but Lance is far too good to pass on. While Brady may not be able to run his full concept year one with Lance, Teddy’s still tentative nature has held back the offense at times and still lead to too many turnover worthy plays. They will need to slow down the game a bit for Lance if he starts from day one, but they have the pieces to do so. Lance will add a game-breaking dynamic to open up the entire field with his arm, while taking pressure off of CMC and demanding QB spies. This should really open things up for Brady to slowly unleash Lance. They have the pieces to have one of the best offenses in football (and the coaching) if this hits. With so many targets schemed into space and a heavy dose of CMC to make defenses respect the run, Lance’s potential accuracy issues will be muted and he has the ability to drive the ball in ways that help receivers functionally be more open than with a touch passer. They are also perfectly situated to start a cheap Teddy until Lance is ready with a long term minded coaching staff and ownership. Really like this fit and team.
6. *Eagles*- Caleb Farley-CB-Virginia Tech
I could see a case for the Eagles going after Chase here, but with how poor the Eagles secondary has been this year outside of an aging Darius Slay, I can’t see them passing on a talent like Farley. Jim Schwartz likes to put a ton of pressure on his secondary and Maddox/NRC simply don’t have the size or physicality to deal with what’s asked of them. IMO Farley has the highest ceiling of any CB i’ve scouted since Ramsey and similarly has the rare combo of size, speed and football IQ to match up with any receiver or QB in the game. The former QB still knows how to think like a CB and has the ball skills that made him highly recruited as a WR before he transitioned to CB. Farley checks every physical box, every mental box, every playmaking box and is said to have a home run character. If i’m searching for an issue, he can take an occasional miss-step in zone, but Schwartz is famously averse to soft zone. Farley has a bit of an injury history and is still fairly new to the position, but he has all-pro potential, a high floor and is a much needed good fit for this Eagles secondary. They can’t afford to pass on him.
7. *Chargers Via Panthers*- Samuel Cosmi-OT-Texas
The Chargers traded back, acquiring two fourths to make stomaching reaching for a tackle a bit easier. Still they have to do it. They look to have a franchise QB and play-action can only mask so much. The line is simply terrible. Per PFF, the Chargers line ranks as follows: tackles Sam Tevi and Brian Bulaga (71st and 56th out of 78 with Pipkins ranked 77th getting snaps), Trai Turner and Forrest Lamp (81st and 74th of 83) at guard and Dan Feeney (35th of 36) at center. Oof. The only borderline passable starter is a Bulaga at RT who will be 32 next year. With a QB who has wheels and big money tied to a fleet footed Ekeler, I think adding lateral mobility and athleticism to the line is a must. Cosmi isn’t a finished product technically or physically but he has the frame to add good weight while maintaining plus athleticism at the blind side and is used to playing with a mobile QB who will make life tougher on him. He rarely fully loses reps and should provide an immediate upgrade from Tevi, while having an extremely high ceiling. It’s time to change the identity of that line and lean into the play action game that is keeping the offense functional, even if I have Darrishaw rated slightly higher, I prefer this fit.
8. *Football Team*- Ja’Marr Chase-WR-LSU
People seem to be forgetting how good Ja’Marr Chase is after a year off. Justin Jefferson has been one of the best receivers in the entire NFL his rookie year, Terrace Marshall is a borderline round one guy, CEH was a first round pick and yet the most impressive skill player on that 2019 LSU team was Chase. While the Football Team clearly doesn’t have a long term solution at QB, the top 4 guys are gone and I’m not sure they have the skill players or line for a new QB to ever be successful anyways. When your receivers 2-5 are Steven Sims, Cam Sims, Dontrell Inman and Isaiah Wright, you don’t pass on a Ja’Marr Chase. Easily the worst 2-5 in the NFL. Logan Thomas isn’t a top 30 TE either. There are some pieces in DC. McLaurin is a stud and Gibson is everything I hoped he would be. The line has some good pieces, but have two weak links in Martin and Christian that need to be replaced before it can become functional. With a year left on Smith’s deal and 50 mil in cap space, the FT can afford to bring back Scherff, upgrade from Martin and take a swing on a mid round QB. Worst case scenario they go all in on a 2021 QB but actually have the pieces in place for him to hit the ground running.
9. *Lions*- DeVonta Smith-WR-Alabama
The Lions currently have Quintez Cephus and Geronimo Allison as receivers under contract in 2021...that’s it. They have approximately 1.23M in available cap space as it currently stands. I still expect them to figure out a way to bring back Kenny G, but even then, they are going to need a day one starter at WR. My mind is telling me Jaylen Waddle’s speed will get him to top 10, but I don’t love how his game meshes with Stafford nor am I fully confident he’s ready to go day one in 2021. Smith may be built like a teen who just hit a growth spurt but he’s a day one starter in the NFL and his game meshes really well with both Stafford and compliments Golladay’s. I’m really interested to see who takes in Detroit next year, but whoever it is, a potential unit of Kenny G, DeVonta Smith, an emergent TJ Hockenson and D’Andre Swift isn’t the worst place to start.
10. *Falcons*- Kwity Paye-Edge-Michigan
The Falcons need a pass rusher off of the edge, we all know that, it just comes down to which one; so having Rousseau, Paye and Parsons all still on the board is a dream scenario. While I personally have them rated Parsons, Rousseau and then Paye, it’s close enough between all three to go by fit. I honestly think the Falcons have a very strong linebacker corps and won’t get the greatest usage out of Parsons and while I love the idea of Rousseau sliding inside next to Grady Jarrett on 3rd and long, I think they need to go for day one impact and mainly the best all around true edge. For me, that makes Paye the best fit. Always a true freak athlete (which, check out Bruce Feldman’s freak list (https://theathletic.com/1938659/2020/07/21/bruce-feldmans-freaks-list-2019-college-football-top-athletic-performances-2/) but in 2020 he has made a herculean jump in production and polish. This a day one starter, with incredibly rare athletic traits, a feel good backstory and immediate impact at a gigantic need.
11. *Dolphins Via Texans*- Micah Parsons-LB-Penn St
I don’t need to go into too much detail here. The Dolphins have one of the NFL’s few good defenses thanks to a strong secondary and simply elite play calling and positioning from Flores/Boyer. That’s despite Elandon Roberts and Jerome Baker’s poor play and general talent. So what if we gave them a uniquely talented player who can play inside, outside and even play as a pure edge while fitting what the scheme wants to do perfectly? I can’t wait to find out. I think Parsons is still somewhat raw as a player and will have a few rough moments early on, simply because he’s been so so so much more naturally gifted than his competition for his entire life and hasn’t been punished for small mistakes. That said, I can’t think of a better landing spot at getting the most out of him early on and putting him in positions to succeed, nor can I think of a better player at mentoring him than Kyle Van Noy. Parsons will be an immediate upgrade and the potential for what he could grow into in Miami is tantalizing. Thanks Houston.
12. *Cowboys Via Broncos*- Patrick Surtain II-CB-Alabama
The Cowboy’s trade back pays off. I would have been between Surtain and Farley at 4th overall and while I would have leaned Farley, the gap certainly isn’t a 2022 (likely somewhat early) 1st rounder and a 4th. Pairing Surtain up with his college counterpart in Diggs should allow Diggs to go back to his natural 2 spot and provide an immediate upgrade from the triumvirate of Awuzie, Brown and Lewis. Surtain may not be the fastest straight line runner, but his hips are as smooth as they come and he makes up for any long speed deficiencies with elite mirroring and physicality. Surtain has improved as a tackler in 2020 and is probably the best day one starter at CB in this class. The Cowboys will need some safety help over the top against speed receivers, but this is an easy pick.
13. *Bears*- Christian Darrisaw-OT-Virginia Tech
The Bears would love a top 4 QB to fall into their laps at 13, but I just don’t know if they have the assets to afford a move into the top 5 right now. With Nick Foles more expensive to cut than to keep and only 2 mil in expected cap room in 2021, they will need to clear up some space. They happen to have two expensive tackles that are playing solidly but are the only non Akiem Hicks way to open up a big chunk of cap. With Ifedi a free agent expecting to see a bigger contract in 2021, the Bears have a day one need at tackle. Luckily for them, my #2 rated tackle is still on the board and is an absolute monster when he’s set and moves extremely well for his size. There are some issues getting set, but he has an extremely high ceiling and could help open up some much needed cap space for Chicago, while providing a long term solution to a two tackles who are due a lot of money, are cheap to cut and getting onto the wrong side of 30 (and coming off of a severe knee injury in Massie’s case). A receiver is an option here if they cant bring back A-Rob, as could be CB if they cut Fuller. Safety appears as a need as well, but nobody is close to a value this early. Darrishaw is the best value to need for me.
14. *Vikings*- Gregory Rousseau-Edge-Miami (FL)
I looooove this pick. A lot of people are low on Rousseau since he isn’t a finished product, but I think that’s pretty unfair. Rousseau, in his first year as a starter managed 15.5 sacks and 19.5 TFL. While his pressure rate made the sack total seem unsustainable, this is a player who will always have a high sack to pressure ratio due to his insane length, absurd speed to power and insane closing burst. Rousseau is unlikely to be a finished product in 2021, he needs to improve his move repertoire and would do well to use his length to shut down passing lanes. But he has a much higher floor than people give him credit for because he does such a good job of using his length to keep defenders outside of his body and can always detach from blocks. He physically resembles Jevon Kearse, which is something I’ve never said before and his athletic testing is going to be nutty. From a traits perspective this is a once every 5-10 years prospect. Minnesota has done a great job developing high ceiling players and have needs across the D-line. Rousseau setting an edge on run downs and sliding inside for passing downs (where he will be a nightmare from day one) will be a huge asset for the Viks. I can’t see them passing on Rousseau should he be on the board at 14 barring a sliding Trey Lance.
15. *Patriots*- Jaylen Waddle-WR-Alabama
It baffles me that a great defensive mind like BB has allowed himself to have such a slow receiver group, but I can’t imagine him just allowing it to remain as is. The Pats have holes along the D-line and would love a franchise QB, but have played themselves out of contention for the clear round one talents. While I have to imagine Kyle Pitts would be extremely enticing here, he doesn’t offer the ability to play in-line/move nor would he be functional slid in at FB. Without the ability to disguise playcalls, I see Waddle as the pick here to add some much needed electricity and field stretching ability despite having Pitts rated slightly higher. Jakobi Meyers has emerged as a solid receiver for the Pats and the ghost of Julian Edelman remains. With Waddle demanding defensive attention, perhaps he can open up some free space for N’Keal Harry to finally realize some of the yac ability that got him drafted so highly. Edge has to be tempting, but with Rousseau and Paye both off of the board the gap between what Waddle brings to the table vs a second round receiver and a Basham type vs who will be there at 46 leans heavily in Waddle’s favor. Assuming he’s fully healthy at the combine, I think this is Waddle’s floor.
16. *49ers*- Jaycee Horn-CB-South Carolina
The 49ers would love to see a top 4 QB fall to 16 and have to be somewhat interested in Trask and Jones as scheme fits, but they also currently have literally zero cornerbacks under contract for 2021, nor are they particularly flush with cap space nor do they have a third round pick. Jaycee Horn is not only my clear cut CB3 (maaaybe can see a case for Stokes) but he’s also a great fit for what Saleh wants to do should he remain in town. This is one of the easier picks in the first for me. Good fit, arguably best player available and absolutely massive,gaping, day one need. Wyatt Davis is a strong 1B for me though.
17. *Jaguars Via Raiders*- Kyle Pitts-TE-Florida
The Jags have a ton of picks early this year, a coordinator who excels at using athletic receiving TE, a rookie QB who they will be heavily invested in succeeding, a clear need at TE and a likely willing trade partner in Las Vegas. Trading up to grab Pitts is a no-brainer for me. He’s a top 10 talent in the class who could legitimately compete for WR1 in the class should he be listed that way. Is he a great blocker? No. But he’s literally breaking records at catching contested balls, runs the crispest routes i’ve ever seen from a TE and is going to be a prime Jimmy Graham level end-zone threat who can win at every point on the field. Who matches up with this guy? Not a CB, not an LB, maaaaaybe Isaiah Simmons on his best day or a Derwin James? Factor in Jay Gruden knowing exactly how to use this kind of talent and how ridiculously accurate Justin Fields is and you have to make this trade. A Justin Fields offense with this receiving group and Gruden calling plays gets me excited. Just need a tackle and a defense and we may just have something here. Jason Mendoza would be ecstatic.
18. *Ravens*-Wyatt Davis-IOL-Ohio St
The Ravens are reeeeally missing Marshall Yanda and Davis is easily the top IOL in this class for me. I think the Ravens are trying to move away from their 2019 offensive strategy since the don’t have the pieces, but the answer is actually to rebuild around what actually worked. That has to start in the trenches. Wyatt Davis embodies Ravens football. He is a genuine people mover, but he doesn’t sacrifice speed or mobility to achieve that power. He’s pure controlled aggression, and if that’s not a Harbaugh player, I don’t know Harbaugh. If Davis played any other position, he wouldn’t be on the board at 18. Plug and play week one starter who can help get the Ravens back to the 2019 glory. If Pitts is off of the board, this has to be the pick.
19. *Giants*- Joseph Ossai-Edge-Texas
The Giants situation isn’t as bad as I thought at first glance. They haven’t had the best offensive line pay, but with Nate Solder set to return in ‘21, Andrew Thomas starting to look closer to a top 10 pick and Matt Peart as an interesting developmental piece, it felt early to reach on a tackle and I don’t love any interior lineman enough to pull the trigger here. Receiver is a glaring need, but I think there will still be impact starters to get in round two and money to spend in FA as needed. I don’t hate Daniel Jones from my looks and think if the line and skill positions improve around him, he still has a chance to develop into a second contract sort of guy. He deserves his 40 start sample size. With Saquon set to return, that leaves edge as the most glaring need. Leonard Williams and Dalvin Tomlinson are both free agents (though should imo be brought back) and Kyle Fackrell doesn’t deserve another season as a starter. In Patrick Graham’s multiple 3-4 front, there happen to be two exciting players who fit the rush LB mold extremely well and fit value wise. Azeez Ojulari and Jospeh Ossai. I have Ossai rated slightly higher on my board and love his fit in this defense as a better early down linebacker with a higher athletic ceiling in coverage and better length to entice Gettleman while avoiding combo blocks. The dude is no slouch as a pass rusher either. I love the player and love the fit in a defense that might just emerge in ‘21 if things go right.
20. *Cardinals*- Eric Stokes-CB-Georgia
The Cardinals 2021 will have Patrick Peterson, Johnathan Joseph and Dre Kirkpatrick all hitting free agency next year, leaving just slot corner Byron Murphy and a soon to be 33 year old Robert Alford coming off a broken leg to end 2019, torn pec that cost him all of 2020 who can be cut to clear 7.5M of cap space. Corner jumps out as a need both long term and potentially from day one. Few players in this class have impressed me as much as Stokes has. Stokes has always been a technically sound player who shines bright outside in press, with loose hips and long arms to obscure passing lanes. But in 2020, he’s taken that next step into a playmaker. Despite teams tending to avoid throwing at him, he’s flashed greatly improved ball skills and even housed two of the picks he has. I think this is a true all around outside corner who can fit in any scheme and do whatever is asked of him. I don’t exactly see a pro bowl ceiling here, but I think Stokes might be the safest CB in this entire class and it wouldn’t shock me if he had the best rookie year of this solid corner class. People tend to underrate a good, polished CB2 chasing upside that doesn’t always fully develop. Draft good football players.
21. *Buccaneers*- Azeez Ojulari-Edge-Georgia
In a down IDL class, I’m tempted to reach for Barmore here and with Donovan Smith able to be cut to clear 14.25M in 2021, a polished tackle like Eichenberg is somewhat enticing. But with both Lavonte David and Shaq Barrett set to be expensive free agents next year, I think a rush LB/edge hybrid is the biggest need and it just so happens Ojulari is still on the board. When I watch Ojulari I pretty much see Shaq Barrett. A smaller, still long bursty/bendy player who can rush the passer at an elite rate, but will struggle setting an edge. Barrett is a good player, but he’s going to demand a contract that will pay him more than he’s worth and take him into the wrong side of 30. Ojulari can replace something very close to Barrett on rushing downs while a cheap Anthony Nelson is already an elite edge setter on run downs. Lavonte David is a much harder player to replace IMO and they should give him the big contract. Between Nelson and Ojulari, I think they can replace Barrett for 20M less a year and honestly, the pairing has a higher ceiling if everything comes together. It will also help the Bucc’s line get younger, which is much needed for future outlook. I can’t think of a better coach than Todd Bowles to max out a guy like Ojulari. Love this fit.
22. *Dolphins*- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah-LB-Notre Dame
After addressing linebacker with pick number 11, the Dolphins double down and draft another at pick 22. If you’re going to start two monster rush LB like Kyle Van Noy and Micah Parsons, it sure as hell won’t hurt to have an absolute speed freak to fly around and neutralize both TE and speed backs. The closest thing I’ve seen to Owusu-Koramoah is basically the 2020 Seahawks version of Jamal Adams (minus the injury) undersized for an LB but incredibly fast, incredibly good at deciphering plays and a surprisingly good blitzer. The dude finishes tackles against future sunday morning players too. As mentioned earlier, Elandon Roberts and Jerome Baker ain’t it, especially in a mainly odd front defense. JOK offers a truly unique skill set that not only compliments the pieces already there well, but will be maximized by a coach like Flores. The Dolphins have needs on the O-line, receiver and RB, but you won’t find another JOK in the second round, where they have two picks. Perhaps they can target Owusu-Koramaoh’s son, Travis Etienne with one of those picks.
23. *Colts*- Jaelan Phillips-Edge-Miami (FL)
The Colts have needs at WR,CB and will likely do their due diligence on the remaining QBs. However, the Colts top 3 snap getters on the edge (Houston, Muhammad and Autry) are all free agents, only Houston has been performing well and he’s already 32. Even if he returns, edge will be a need. While Phillips won’t be the top edge available on every team's board here due to a very small sample size and a long injury history, I have to imagine Ballard will be head over heals for this player. Ballard has shown in the past he wants to target athletes with length and Phillips has both in spades. The former #1 overall recruit has insane length, insane burst, elite bend,elite speed to power and knows how to use all four to be first to contact and shed tackles like snake skin. Phillips measurables and 2020 tape are clear cut first round grades and had he had three healthy years, he might be the top edge in the class. The dude even wins in coverage at 6’5 265. The question is, do you trust him to stay healthy. He’s the type of player that will be top 15 on 8 teams boards, mid day two on 10 teams boards and completely off of 14 teams boards. I think Ballard is going to fall in the first group of GMs and he will rush to the podium to get Phillips in the building.
24. *Browns*- Zaven Collins-LB-Tulsa
The Browns have clear needs at edge and linebacker. If Owusu-Koramoah were on the board, he’d be the pick and Dylan Moses has to make them think. But I think they instead get them somebody who can do both. Andrew Berry has shown a strong correlation of draft picks to PFF grades and guess who PFF’s top graded LB in all of college football is? Zaven Collins. More than just questionably important player grades at Tulsa, Zaven Collins has the unteachable traits you can’t coach and scouting teams will love. 6’4 260 pound men shouldn’t be able to move like this. Collins is nimble and agile and is going to blow up the combine. I’d bet money on that. He uses this blend of size and agility to simple avoid blocks at Tulsa but has the size and length to easily disengage at any level. He is borderline elite in coverage and has bullied American conference passers into 2 pass deflections and 4 picks (which he’s returned for 152 yards and 2 TDs) in just 6 2020 games. Collins can rush the passer as well and has legit edge size. Collins currently plays more fast (which he is) than powerful (which he also is). I’d like to see him learn to use his size to initiate contact and bully people at the point of contact because he absolutely can, but I guess why do it when you can just avoid them completely. The game speeds up from the American conference to the AFC North, but I think Collins is a day one LB, special teams force and has potential to develop into a very special player. Watching him play, he reminds me of a cross between KJ Wright and Jamie Collins, but bigger. Fun Player and easy fit.
25. *Raiders Via Jaguars*- Christian Barmore-IDL-Alabama
After trading back and acquiring an extra top 70 pick, the Raiders select the player they wanted all along. The Raiders need a more consistent pass rush. Clelin Ferell has taken a huge step forward in 2020, but he will always be a stop the run player more than a sack artist (as is Nassib), while I’m not ready to give up on Maxx Crosby, he hasn’t been the same player he was in 2019 (or close to it). Maurice Hurst has been their only good pass rusher for my money, but he will need help inside. Johnathan Hankins is a free agent, soon to be on the wrong side of 30. Vickers and Collins certainly aren’t the answer. In a down IDL class, Barmore is the only player I can see ging round one and is easily my top IDL in the class. Is he a polished player and tactician? Nope. NFL double teams will likely eat him if he can’t add more moves or play with better leverage. That said, if you try to double him, Hurst is gonna murder your quarterback. Barmore has rare length, bend and power for an interior player. He already wins against SEC lineman and can play all across the line despite being 310 pounds. When he wins, he wins quickly and is an immediate disruptive force up the middle. Put him outside in short yardage situations and back inside on clear passing downs and he will immediately be an upgrade for the black and silver. He won’t be a 3-down guy year one, but that doesn’t mean he won’t make an impact. Long term, the sky is the limit. This is the only IDL in this class I can envision making a pro bowl. He also just so happens to come from the winning culture that Gruden?Mayock love. It just makes too much sense not to happen.
26. *Jets Via Seattle*- Carlos Basham-Edge-Wake Forest
It’s still TBD who will be the Jets DC in 2021, but I think they have personnel best suited for a true multiple front but could certainly use a genuinely polished power edge suited to play both 3-4 and 4-3 edge. Basham is that guy and while Joe Douglas has a love for quick twitch athletes off of the edge, I think Boogie Basham would make too much sense to pass up on here. Basham (who’s cousin Tarrell is a current Jet likely to be brought back for 2021) is a relentless load to handle on the perimeter who has the kind of day one polish this team needs. Basham has a fantastic grasp on how to clog gaps on run downs, is a sure tackler with his massive wingspan, sheds blocks with a very impressive and polished array of moves, never seems to be out of position, doesn’t over pursue and get out of position and man knows how to use his long-limbed frame to create chaos. Across his last 19 games, he has forced 7 fumbles and tipped 4 passes despite being double and triple teamed week in, week out. Basham isn’t a poor athlete by any means, but I would say he’s more of a day two bend/burst combo than typical day one. That said, he has day one starter polish at 285, makes the players around him better and creates turnovers. This isn’t your 10 sack a year guy, but it’s your 6-8 sack a year, consistent 3 down/scheme versatile edge who makes the players around him better and brings much needed leadership skills.
27. *Titans*- Dylan Moses-LB-Alabama
I expect this to be one of my most controversial picks in this mock. With Clowney a free agent again, edge is a glaring need, but unless you want to reach big time for an edge there isn’t anybody left. With only 10M of cap space currently in 2021, Corey davis has likely priced himself out of town with a boom season. WR is a need but one that can be addressed later. Daquan Jones will need to be replaced at DT. But with Jayon Brown likely gone in 2021, I have to think the former LB and the former Patriot in Mike Vrabel is going to fall in love with Dylan Moses the player; as well as Dylan Moses the person. Moses is a freak athlete with a freak work ethic who clearly just loves the game of football. The movement skills, power and tackling ability are all special. That said, he’s had a somewhat down year. He has good instincts, but you can visually see him second guess himself and overthink plays. RPO’s, sudden moves and good routes have eaten him up in 2020. Who better to teach a special ball of clay how to turn his brain off than Vrabel? Moses will be a day one starter, immediate locker room leader and running back neutralizer in day one for the Titans. There will be some rough moments early on, but this is the kind of player Vrabel loves and the ceiling is really high for this pairing. A reach for Jason Oweh or Jay Tufele feel possible here as well, as could a Bateman or Marshall pick.
28. *Bills*- Shaun Wade-CB-Ohio St
Bills could use an edge if they can’t bring back Murphy, would have to take a long look at Moses if he were on the board and could really use a Pat Freiermuth...but if the draft falls like this I expect them to run to the podium. Josh Norman, Levi Wallace and Daryl Worley are all free agents in 2021 and Taron Johnson isn’t particularly good. With just 4.8M in 2021, this likely means the Bills will need a minimum of one cheap starting CB and likely both a slot and outside guy. Wade can fill both roles and is simply too talented to remain on the board here. Easy pick to make.
29. *Packers*- Rashod Bateman-WR-Minnesota
Do the Packers seemingly ever draft WR round one? No. Should they? Yep. Do they currently have the cap space to bring back Allan Lazard? Lol no. They have -18M in cap space next year. It’s worth noting that this means they are extremely unlikely to be able to resign Aaron Jones, which explains the weird AJ Dillon reach and opens up RB as a possibility. That makes me tempted to grab Kadarius Toney as a Kamara role hybrid, but that doesn’t seem like a Packers move. Terrace Marshall feels like a Packers pick, but he doesn’t block as well as Bateman and won’t be quite as good day one. I think Gutekunst will fall in love with Bateman’s boundary receiving skills, Rodgers will lobby hard for a receiver that wins with a skillset similar to Davante Adams and LaFleur will fall in love with Bateman’s alpha run-blocking game. Toss in the fact that Bateman in Green Bay will rip the heart out of Vikings fans and it’s an all around win. Linebacker is an absolutely glaring need, but all the good ones are gone and the Packers seem to hate drafting them even more than hate drafting receivers. Love this fit and pick.
30. *Chiefs*- Rashawn Slater-OT-Northwestern
The Chiefs have had one hell of a run, but 2021 will be the beginning of having to pay the piper. Even without resigning Sammy Watkins, Charvarius Ward, Breeland, Nieman, Wilson, osemele, Rieters, Remmers, Wylie, Robinson, Lev Bell, Sorenson,kpassagnon and Pennell among players who saw heavy snaps in 2020; they will be -15M in 2021 cap space. And that’s BEFORE the roster gets expensive in 2022. This means, at minimum two of the Honey Badger, Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher will be cap casualties. Basically the entire o-line and secondary will be needs, as well as 1-2 WR. Rashawn Slater of “the only player not to be sucked into the void by Chase Young in 2019” fame can play 4 of the line slots, moves incredibly well for a man his size, can play in cold weather and is apparently loved by “NFL types”. This feels like a pick the Chiefs have to make.
31. *Saints*- Tyson Campbell-CB-Georgia
If you thought the Chiefs cap situation was bad….the Saints currently have -95M of cap space in 2021. -95M. Jared Cook, Alex Anzalone, Sheldon Rankins, Marcus Williams and Trey Hendrickson are impact free agents who won’t be able to be resigned. Making LB, FS, Edge and IDL big needs. Ryan Ramczyk, Marshon Lattimore, Malcolm Brown and Kwon Alexander almost 100% have to be cut. It’s a bad spot to be in. Tackle, QB, LB, DT and CB all stand out as the biggest needs. With two QB’s fully guaranteed over 33M in dead cap in 2021, reaching for a QB round one doesn’t seem likely. Jaylen Mayfield or a Liam Eichenberg seem possible, as could a Jay Tufele but there will be more potential day one starters there round two than CB. Tyson Campbell has injury concerns and has had a pretty poor 2020, but he looks built in a lab to be a CB1. I think this is the replacement for a Lattimore that the Saints simply can’t afford next year. It’s a very wide range of possible outcome player, but it’s a risk they have to take.
32. *Steelers*- Jalen Mayfield-OT-Michigan
The Steelers are yet another team in 2021 cap hell. Sitting pretty at -20M in 2021, the Steelers will have Bud Dupree, Juju, James Conner, Matt Feiler, Cam Sutton, Mike Hilton, Robert Spillane and Tyson Alualu as free agent starters. Edge, OT, CB and RB all jump out as big needs even before cap casualties and the QB of the future still isn’t in the building. In particular, tackle, edge and RB jump out as needs. Jalen Mayfield is a lab built tackle with great length, power and agility wrapped up in a prototypical frame. He is not yet a finished product, who struggles against speed to power and gets over his toes at times. But he has the traits you can’t teach and should thrive in a power concept. Year one will be up and down and in a perfect world, he’d have a year or two to season. Maybe Eichenberg will be a better fit. But he just screams Steelers power football when he gets his lower half right. I can’t see Mike Tomlin go for a RB with the ball security issues Etienne has and while Harris will be tempting, the needs up front are just too much to pass up on a potential starter.

The Mighty

"Don't worry about it Estelle" Eric said, gently laying his large hand on her frail shoulder. "I've got this."
Estelle reached up and put her own small hand onto his. Her eyes closed behind her almost comically thick glasses and a small tear tracked down her cheek.
" I should try and help" she started to explain, her voice small and frail compared to Eric's. "I can distract them, or... or I could..." words failed her . She knew that she would be more of a burden than a help.
Eric just smiled down at her. At 6'4" tall, he towered over her, as she stood at a mere 5 feet of height. Where he was just 35 years of age, strong and hardy, with muscles built from years of logging, she was elderly, pushing 85 at least, though he knew better than to ask, and she was thin, sickly and riddled with pain. Her shockingly white hair contrasted with her dark skin. The two could not have been more opposite.
Estelle had been picked up in south Georgia. Eric was picked up in Oregon. The only reason they had been taken, as some bug faced looking troll explained to them, his chirping and clicking sounds changed by a device on his belt into English, was because that some great event, which he called 'The Galactic Games' had arrived.
It seems that once every 25 Galactic Cycles, a contest of great import took place, where 50 species all fought to the death in the great arena. The betting and money that changed hands during this event had fortunes won and lost, planets change possession and in some unfortunate cases, entire races subjugated to indentured servitude, all due to an ill-informed wager. This year, there was only 49 species, as one that normally attended the games were wiped out by their sun going nova. They needed another species, and so they searched, and found the Humans. Rather than asking for a tribute of two members, the Game Committee felt it prudent to just take 2 at random, so that is what they did.
The bug-troll went on to explain that two members from each species volunteered after spending their lives training for this event. The winner would receive 25x the weight of their heaviest opponent in whatever precious metal they desired... and the prestige.. "You can choose any luxury, bed any others partner, demand any exorbitant price to make an appearance, and it will be granted!"
The bug-troll hesitated, seemingly sure that the newcomers called "humans" would be impressed. He was only slightly disappointed to see they were not.
"I did not volunteer for anything!" Eric growled through clenched teeth. He looked back at his companion, the elderly black woman called Estelle. "And I am pretty sure she did not either"
The bug-troll remained quiet for a moment, as if trying to think of a proper response. What he finally said was "I don't care."
As he turned to leave, he said "Whether you fight or not makes no difference. Once in that arena, whoever you are facing will kill you. I hope to make a large sum from your deaths if you are the first race to perish!"
And so that is how Eric and Estelle, the first Humans ever in The Galactic Games came to be. Eric shuddered at some of the other species he saw... Small, fast beings with razor sharp claws, hulking beasts whose hands were the size of his head, thin creatures that seemed to flicker in and out of his vision, and worst of all, something that Eric could only describe as a "Mantis Spider". Long, scything talons, Mandibles that dripped some greenish colored liquid and a huge towering arachnid body.... it gave him the shivers to even think about it.
"That is Tiamak" one of the guards told him as the creature lumbered by. "He is by far the favorite to win the event".
Eric looked helplessly at the hulking beast. "And there are two of them?" he asked.
The guard barked out a laugh. "Yes, but Tiamak will kill his partner the moment the games begin. Most of the champions do,it is tradition... No need to share the spoils" the guard turned an eyestalk to where Estelle was in the back of their holding area, on her knees, rocking back and forth and praying for salvation. "I think it would be easy for you to do the same" he said.
Eric recoiled in disgust. The calm nonchalance in which the alien suggested he kill a helpless woman just solidified what he was dealing with... and it made the thought of killing them a little easier to bear.
So when it was about to begin, Eric placed his hand on Estelle's shoulder . "don't worry about this Estelle" he said gently. "I got this. When it begins, I will pretend to kill you, and you just lie down. I think that will be enough to keep you safe, at least for a little while"
Estelle could only nod her head in silence, her hand resting on Eric's, with tears of frustration squeezing out from tightly clenched eyes.
The arena they stood in was packed floor to ceiling with spectators. Announcers spoke the names of the competitors, and their odds of winning, translated into every language. The crowd was already cheering, without the games having even begun.
In the arena itself, 100 warriors stood facing each other, spread out evenly.
A countdown began, blaring over the loudspeakers, but the roar from the crowd almost drowned it out... then a loud wailing siren sounded... the games had begun!
Immediately, Eric turned to Estelle, and put his hands around her throat. He looked like he was choking the life out of her, but he was really just gently lowering her to the ground.
"Don't move" he whispered to her. "Don't let them know you are alive!"
Estelle gave a subdued sob, a slight nod of her head, and lay still.
Eric stood and looked around. It seemed that most of his competitors also had just attacked their partners the second the games began, the ground of the arena was already littered with the dead. Eric saw Tiamak slicing up his partner easily, body parts and blood flying with every swipe of Tiamak's mighty claws. Shaking his head in disgust, Eric advanced toward his nearest enemy, a bipedal feline looking creature.
The fight was quick. The cat creature darted in, hissing at Eric, but a quick right cross brought the thing to the ground, and then a quick stomp from a workboot ended it. The crowd was always roaring at some action that was going on, mostly around Tiamak's victories. Eric made sure to steer clear of any area Tiamak was in.
As the number of fighters dwindled, Eric realized that most of his competitors were very badly winded.. some struggling to stay upright as the battle raged. Eric was tired, yes, but he had plenty more reserves to draw from. It was this that kept him alive. He kept moving, darting in and hitting opponents, then darting out until the opponent dropped, or they got frustrated enough to move on to a newer, slower opponent.
Eric saw himself facing off against an alien that looked like a small tree, with dark bark for skin and long, twig-like fingers. Eric soon found out that even though the twigs looked fragile, they were razor sharp and deadly. Eric struggled against this tree creature, but was unable to get in close. every time he tried, a quick slash ended his attempt and opened more wounds on Eric, his arms, chest and back were soon covered in bleeding gashes.
Looking around, Eric saw that there were only three fighters left... the Tree creature, Himself and Tiamak, who was standing back, watching them fight to the death... no need to attack now, let them fight and hurt each other more.
Eric became desperate. He was unable to penetrate the defenses of the tree creature, and he was losing a lot of blood. He had no choice.. he feigned weariness, stumbling and making slow lunges.. he was attempting to lure the creature into thinking he was worse off than he really was. It seemed to work.. the creature became more excited, taking more risks to end the fight, as Tiamak slowly circled them both, waiting to rush in and attack the victor.
Eric stumbled, and fell to a knee. The creature rushed in to finish him, but instead of finding an exhausted human on his last legs, the tree creature suddenly saw Eric lunge forward, his left arm grabbing it by the throat. The creature thrashed, slashing at the arm that had it in an iron grip.. Tiamak started to approach, getting ready to pounce. Looking directly into Tiamak's eyes, Eric roared, his deep bellowing voice even drowning out the roar of the crowd, and Eric lifted the tree creature by his throat off the ground, one handed, while the creature continued to slash his arm to bloody ribbons. Tiamak hesitated, and saw, with a final roar, Eric shake the creature by the neck, Tiamak heard a loud snap as the neck broke, and Tiamak watched as Eric threw the corpse to the dirt, his eyes never leaving Tiamak's. For the first time in his long life, Tiamak found himself a little... intimidated.
Eric stood facing Tiamak.. his left arm ripped to shreds by the tree-creature. His red blood ran down his arm, to his fingers and down into the grey dirt of the arena. Tiamak extended his front fore-claws, long, scything and razor sharp. Tiamak was limping a little, as an opponent had managed to damage his back left leg. Eric looked hopelessly around. There was nothing he could use as a weapon, nothing but his own hands.
Tiamak rushed at Eric, swinging with his mighty claws, but Eric was able to dive out of the way. Tiamak struggled to turn and face him... His back leg was hurt more than Eric first thought. It gave him a little hope. If he could stay out of the way of the talons, he may be able to wear Tiamak out.
So Eric started a long, cat and mouse game.. the audience roaring each time a claw almost cut him in half.. there were many times a piece of paper could not have fit between the talons of Tiamak and Eric's skin. Soon, Tiamak started to tire.. his slashes slowed down, and instead of wide, sweeping swipes at Eric, to save energy Tiamak started to slash straight downwards, the tip of his claw digging into the dirt of the arena floor.
Eric saw his chance. The next time Tiamak sliced downwards, the tip of his claw embedding itself deep in the hard packed dirt of the arena, Eric threw his entire body weight in a lunge at the claw, hitting it with his shoulder. A loud CRACK echoed through the arena, and Tiamak roared in pain, flailing backwards, his right arm spurting green blood where the claw had broken off at the wrist.
Eric quickly grabbed Tiamaks broken claw and straining, managed to pull it out of the dirt. The crowd was on their feet, stamping and screaming as Eric stood, facing Tiamak, using Tiamak's own claw as a weapon against him!
Tiamak hissed in rage and pain, and lunged at Eric. Eric roared at Tiamak, and ran to meet him, the two gladiators slamming into each other, slashing and tearing, trying to end each others existence and finish this. Eric screamed in pain when Tiamak managed to slice through his abdomen and down into his thigh. Eric knew that Tiamak had overextended himself to do this, so Eric swung with all his strength at Tiamak's chest, where the claw Eric was using as a weapon ripped through the protective plating, and stuck in Tiamak's spine. Tiamak roared in pain, grabbed the claw stuck in his chest, yanked it out, and immediately fell to the dirt, twitching and spasaming as the claw severed his spine when Tiamak had ripped it out.
Eric fell to his knees, then to his back. His lifeblood pooled around him, and his vision began to fade. He knew he was dying, but he also knew that Tiamak would follow quickly behind. The thought of that made Eric smile, and that is how this noble human passed, victorious in battle against a larger, stronger foe, with a ghost of a smile on his lips.
As Eric expired, Tiamak knew he was the winner. He tried to struggle to move, but he was helpless. He knew, however, that he would be allowed medical attention now that the tournament was over, but it would have to come quick if he was to survive this... that human was a lot stronger and tougher than he ever dreamed. Tiamak's eyes darted in all directions, straining to see the medical personnel that should be running to his aid. He saw nothing.
The crowd was silent... questioning why the winner had not been announced. Eric the human was dead. Tiamak was still alive (if barely) so Tiamak was the victor! Where was the blaring siren, denoting the end of the games and Tiamak victorious?
A gasp ran through the crowd as all eyes turned to where Estelle lay in the dirt. They saw her slowly sit up, and struggle to her feet. They watched as she looked around the blood stained arena, festooned with body parts and corpses. They watched as she slowly shuffled forward in her fluffy slippers, each step creating a small cloud of dust.
They watched in silence as she knelt by Eric, tears streaming down her cheeks. "rest well my warrior" she said softly and closed his unseeing eyes with her trembling hand. She struggled back to her feet, and looked with pure hatred at Tiamak.
Tiamak tried to move.. to slash out at the frail human approaching him, but Eric's strike had been too deep. His limbs would not respond. Tiamak tried to say something, but only managed to cough up a green blob of bloody mucus to the dirt he lie in. He watched in terror as Estelle stooped, and picked up his broken claw.
Tiamak tried to flail around, to scream, to do anything, but his body would not respond. He just saw Estelle slowly walk up to him, and place the sharp point of his own broken claw to his eye.
"For Eric" Estelle managed to say, and put all her sickly, frail weight on the claw.
It was enough. The razor sharp talon slid through Tiamak's eye, releasing a greenish, stringy liquid, and pierced through into his brain.
The crowd was as silent as the grave. Suddenly, a loud siren blared, causing the entire arena to jump in their seats.
"AMAZING!" an announcers voice blared through the stadium! "AMAZING! The games are over! We have a winner!"
And then the crowd erupted in a roar of pure emotion. Some wailed at lost fortunes, others screamed for the unlikely human, and others yelled just to release pent up emotions.
"The Victor of the Games!" the announcer roared, and beams of light from a dozen different sources shone down on Estelle's bent and shaking form.
"Estelle the Mighty! Decimator Of Fortunes! Destroyer of Tiamak! Humanities strongest warrior!"
Estelle only shuffled slowly back to the large gate at the exit to the arena. The crowd roared with excitement with every step she took, each puff of blood stained dirt her slippers raised... and then, just before she disappeared from view, she turned back to the crowd. A silence so complete you could hear the faintest of noises fell across the crowd. Every ear was bent, all attention was focused on this human warrior who stunned the galaxy.. waiting to see what she would do or say. Estelle slowly looked across the vast arena, taking in all the alien forms and creatures that covered every square inch of her vision. She slowly raised both arms above her head, her small hands clenched into fists... and then she quickly extended the middle finger of each hand, turned on her heel and left.
Roaring, thinking it was a human sign of victory the crowd repeated the gesture, every arm of every alien raised to the heavens, every middle digit extended. It soon swept the Galaxy, any time a contest was won, anytime an opponent was bested, the victor would throw both arms to the heavens and extend the middle digit of their hands, in honor of Estelle the mighty.
And Estelle, the God fearing religious woman that she was, had never made that gesture before in her life, but she truly felt that the good Lord would not hold this one time against her.

The evolution of a Fett main, or: how to stand your ground as a mosquito.

Call me butthurt or a hater, but I disagree with people saying the bad calls by the refs didn't matter.

The bad calls made all the difference. When teams get bad calls. They lose momentum and morale. And when you lose momentum and morale it is hard to win. Most of football is mental. And when the refs working against you gain a sense of hopelessness because even if you try hard it won't matter. Because when the games on the line the calls will always go in the favor of Brady, we know this, we have seen it happen for years, and multiple games this season. This is not a new thing. I don't think the refs should even be in the discussion of favoring any team over another. Saying it didn't make a difference because it wasn't close enough is the exact thing cheaters would want you to believe. They said the exact same thing about spy gate, where knowing your opponents plays gives a huge advantage. The patriots went from the worst team in the league to winning multiple Super Bowls with spy gates. Because of this Brady gained stronger rosters for gaining the reputation of winning when he cheated in the first place to gain that reputation. He went undefeated a season because every team in the league had to switch up their play books and calls after learning they had been stolen. He lost to in the Super Bowl to a physically superior d line and a hurry up offense that moved to fast for them to call plays to counter them as they could still remember the calls. The reality is that knowing what your opponent is going to do in any competition is an unfair advantage. In a pro poker match the guy who knows the cards everyone holds and the order of every card in the deck is much more likely to win, I am not saying it is guaranteed, its not 100%, but the odds are in his favor. What the patriots did is worse than the equivalent to peaking at someones screen in a video game, or someone cards in the had of a Yu-Gi-Oh game, because it was a calculated and coordinated effort involving many people instead of just one individual cheater. Turns out they've been using deflated footballs. Again this gives an advantage, they are easier to catch, less likely to fumble, and you can run faster with deflated balls. It is easier to catch a deflated football than a highly inflated one, as it won't bounce of your hands as much. You can also do faster snaps while reducing the likelihood you fumble thus speeding up the whole offense. Still people said it didn't matter, as the seahawks should of ran the ball. But they shouldn't have been there in the first place, they used it to blow out the colts, and the colts had a different run defense than the patriots, which means if the Seahawks were in the same position against, they might have ran the ball. Unless Marshawn Lynch walked into the end zone without a holding call, if it came down to inches, it would go in the favor of Brady, because refs. In this case you have to work out the fact the refs will always favor Brady when the game is on the line and even when it isn't. And thus, it is better the throw the ball to ensure he is clearly in the end zone. Had it been the Brady who threw that ball, the DB who picked it off would have been called for a pass interference for bumping the guy out of the way before he even touched to ball. Now they also won a Super Bowl with a roided up wide out, they tested Eric Ried how many times? And how many times did they test Edelmen? Hence the double standard for roid testing when involving a guy playing with Brady. In addition in the Falcons game there was a clear face mask call that should of canceled out the holding call. If it was Brady in the position of Matt Ryan. The face mask would have been called and the holding would not have been called. A player on the Bucs held a linemen in the exact same fashion as the Falcon linemen and didn't get called against the Packers. And then there was the time when Gronk lay hit a guy, clear unnecessary roughness. In the Super Bowl against the Eagles. People said it didn't matter because Brady dropped the ball to a pass that was a clear touchdown. I am sure Eagles fans would have cared about that call more if they had lost. The refs need to make fair calls at all times. And they are clearly not doing this when it comes to Brady. The way they Refs get you is they make you think that it doesn't make a difference when it does. The Refs unfair calls should not tip the odds in favor of any team at any point of the game. Why? Because bad calls can decide possession. And possession decides who controls the game. If you get more possessions in the first half you can tire the opposing defense for the second half. You can also keep a high powered offense from picking up steam. You can also tire an offensive line, by having them drive all the way down, and then making a bad call. Penalties also decide field position. Field position decides who wins. Also the coin toss matters. The Chiefs elected to defer. The team in the half that receives first gains more possessions and more chances to score. If the team that defers is in within one possession, they have better odds at winning. If they are in the lead, they have even greater odds at winning. But if they need a couple of possessions to win, as was the case for the Chiefs because of the Refs. Then your odds are obviously less. The Refs made deciding call for possession and field position. Allowing the Bucs to gain a multi possession lead thus greatly titling the odds in favor of their favorite guy, Brady. I know you guys want to convince yourselves that the calls didn't matter. People will call you losers for seeing it any other way. But admitting that there were bad calls and then saying they didn't matter is a state of cognitive dissonance. Your very beliefs contradict each other. The calls were bad and they did matter. Some people are making an argument comparing the rigging of the NFL to the elections. These are totally different. Elections are a highly legally regulated environment. Any cases go before a fair judge, both sides can present their case, but it is down to the interpretation of the law. A player cannot litigate a play call, he can't take it to court, the most he can do is take a complaint to arbitration which is run by the NFL, even still he can't undo the call in the moment. If he tries to protest it he can get another call, a fine, or even ejected. In addition there was no evidence of election fraud. Yet we have literal video evidence of unfair calls clearly favoring Brady on repeated occasions. What is the motive? Why would the NFL do this? They want to call Brady the goat, they wanted the Super Bowl in Tampa. They want to compare him to Jordan, but they want to leave Bill Russell out of the discussion because that kills the debate. They want to undo the stain of the spy gates wins so people can say "Hey, he can win without spy gate, so it didn't matter." Well the league doesn't revolve around Brady. There are plenty of other fans who would love to see the team their rooting for win, and the player their a fan of win. And it is not fair to rig it in favor of a single team, let alone a single player. Now cheating in the way Brady does it doesn't guarantee wins, but it does increase the odds. I feel as if to make a fair analogy of comparing the rigging of the NFL to unproven claims of election fraud. The refs should release their tax returns to see if they are taking any bribes or placing any sports bets, similar to how a president might release his tax returns. I don't want to make this politcal I just want to remove the parody argument of comparing Brady's cheating and illegitimate wins, to legitimate presidential wins that were upheld by the courts, congress, our electoral college, and votes of the American people. If someone bribes a judge or jury or officer that is a crime. If it was found that a person had a large stake in a company being sued he wouldn't make a fair jury, thus a ref shouldn't have a stake for a certain team or player to win. And they must prove this by publicly release their tax returns. And if they falsify their returns they should be charged with tax fraud. Every ref in the NFL should release all their tax returns publicly. And the returns should go back to the beginning of Brady's career. This way we can prove once and for all that the refs were not rigging games in favor of Brady. And the jokes about the refs working for Brady will just be funny jokes. And we can take our loss in peace, or we can storm the NFL HQ demanding them to give the Chiefs the Super Bowl win.

TLDR: The refs calls titled the odds in favor of the Bucs, they should release their tax returns dating back to when Brady joined the league to prove they do not have financial conflicts of interests.

Best way to get through the WWII vs Cold War depression zone with German tanks?

Craps at Rivers (Des Plaines, IL) - Tuesday 1/26

Guide to the Vanilla Sengoku Jidai Campaign: Legendary Edition! (UPDATED!)

Field ashigaru-heavy armies. This will allow you to keep costs low. It is not for their spear wall ability, though this is powerful, it is because their cost effectiveness will allow you to make mistakes.
Remember, you cannot save-scum on legendary. Something will go wrong, and when you don't need to throw your all-samurai army away in a piss-up, the game is a lot more forgiving, and a lot more fun.
Attack first. Be aggressive. All the tables favour the A.I. So, it is up to you to turn them. Build cheap, expendable expeditionary forces to take enemy castles. You'll thank me when your first stack crushes the enemy at your capital in a siege defence, but doesn't have the movement range to counterattack effectively: this usually results in the enemy A.I. using its game-breaking economy and über recruitment slots to field another full stack in two turns. Fuck the A.I. Make sure there's an ambush force in range of the enemy settlement before the enemy begins their assault on your castle. Do this right and you may not even have to fight their army, fingers crossed. (Armies go poof when their last town goes bye-bye.)
Which reminds me, fight using your castles. Open field battles, when you're attacking that is, are a piss-up. The enemy A.I. always camps on hills and makes it a life or death struggle (unless you bring siege equipment). Arrow towers are not worthless. Choke points are provided to you during siege defences. Use every layer. Don't underestimate good strategy. You can hold 300 men on one side of the castle with one unit of ashigaru. The enemy has to try and take your towers and your central flag; so, place your ashigaru in spear wall directly in front of your flags. The enemy must run at your ashigaru and defeat them before progressing through the rest of the castle. Utilise the stupidity of the A.I. and break the enemy by making them come to you.
If the enemy has archers during castle defences, make them waste their ammo, if there are too many of them, attack first.
Cavalry are not good in bulk unless you're Takeda. Four units is too many units. I bolster my generals with a single cavalry unit, which I place on top of my general during deployment, and then lock them together as if they were a single unit. I have one additional cavalry unit in reserve to replace this one; usually, I hide this unit in the woods until I need it. What this does is make my general more weighty. I can now slam him into the lines when they're looking like they're about to tilt in the enemy's favour, which I don't want. This makes him a true support unit, rather than a liability in combat. Yes, your general may die doing this, but you've taken every reasonable precaution, and 60+ additional bodies makes for at least three well-executed charges into the line before things start getting dubious.
Abuse the charge animation. Once you set your cavalry to charge something, the animation begins, calculates the charge bonus, and then deals out the corresponding damage onto the enemy unit. Pull them out the moment the animation ends, because by then your horses are useless and caught-up in the dice-roll matrix. Once your cavalry are out, check the line. If your men aren't winning decisively, slam your bolstered general into the same line again and watch it crumble. Your cavalry will be tired, but you've just won the engagement.
Reduce your micro-management in battles to three key tools: Infantry core, archers on support, and general-cavalry. If you're fast, throw in a quirk unit: ninjas, firebomb throwers (my personal favourite because they don't require much micro to use and they affect the enemy's morale), or brawlers (marathon monks/nag' warrior monks). Whatever your quirk unit is, min-max it with encampment and skill tree buffs. Otherwise, sorry, but you've wasted time and money acquiring it for the roster. If you're building an army you can't field in three turns, you're fucked.
Economy, economy, economy. Get it? Sake dens and markets, sake dens and markets. That's money for your army: not for your navy, not for your nation's well-being and happiness - that's why you're building sake dens - money is for your army. (I had feedback that the fastest way to create a stable economy on Shogun 2 was to take more towns. Personally, I think this is a bad idea, because it exposes you to the borders of other clans. More about that later.)
Use your agents. None of them are shit or under-powered or any of the mumblefuck-none-sense people put online when they don't know how to use them. Monks fuck. Walk them through the enemy's territory and past their capital and into their back lines and wololo those bastards into an early revolution. 33% chance is a 1/3 chance, and if the cost of inciting unrest is only 500 gold... I'll take that bet. This fundamentally weakens your enemy and cuts off their supply lines: which causes the A.I.'s diplomacy to go haywire. How can Takeda be trading with Hojo if I just made their border provinces into grey states? That's right, they can't. Break their relationship first, then bribe them to turn on one another. If you've made them hard enough for you, they'll do it. There you go. You just crushed one of the hardest clans without fighting a battle on the open field! See? Monks fuck. Monks can also demoralise the enemy and inspire your troops with morale bonuses. If the enemy stack has no general to recover from this loss, this is deadly. You will win the encounter on morale alone.
Which reminds me: diplomacy, diplomacy, diplomacy. Think it doesn't matter? Actually, I made Hojo destroy Takeda as Oda, and Imagawa-Tokugawa, and then made Kyoto spit on Hattori, and Hatano clash with the Ikko Ikki: all whilst I sat back, lining up my troops. When the time was right, I sent my armies to take the provinces I needed to execute my Kyoto-plan. Thank you, machine-learning.
Have a plan. Choose territories for their perks (+accuracy bonuses, blacksmiths, resources, gold mines, schools and libraries), not for their availability. If you overextend... Good luck. Just be aware you can't take back coming into contact with the other clans. The more isolationist you are about your affairs, the better.
Your borders are your worse nightmare. Connect with too many clans too quickly and you enter the death-brawl of which there's no escape. Enjoy your war of attrition. Tzu states that there is no instance of a nation benefiting from extended period of war, and yours won't either. Your economy will be shitting bricks by turn fifteen and you'll be playing in -134 income hell. The game isn't fun this way. It isn't fun because you thrust your fist out into the unknown and hell answered back.
Back to agents: Ninja. Ninja fuck harder than anyone's ever fucked. They can redirect enemies and make them go crying home to baba. Sabotage everything in sight during the first few turns of their lifespan. But do not sabotage things belonging to the clans you want to like you, because if you fail, and you will, -20 or even -40 to diplomatic relations. -40 will convince most clans that you're a threat and that you need wiping off the map. Dump points into assassination. Protect your ninja with +5%/10% chances to escape unharmed if they fail in their attempts, and take every +1 to assassination that RNG sweetly offers. Take 33% chances on enemy Daimyo. I've wounded the Oda more times than I can count with these odds and sent his army running back home. And remember, on Legendary, nothing can be taken back. Every attempt might be your agent's last: get used to it. I see a lot of people saying ninja are 'too expensive to maintain'. But what else are you spending money on other than recruiting ashigaru and upgrading vital infrastructure? ... Right? Nothing. People who say this can't run a half-decent economy because they're too busy building archery dojos instead of sake dens.
Metsuke are too expensive to maintain, admittedly. They should not be used to bribe, unless you're doing an 'all-out Metsuke offensive.' By this I mean using Metsuke instead of Ninja to send armies back at the A.I, badminton-style. But personally, I don't see this as cost effective. Instead, Metsuke should be used to spy on strategic choke points to watch out for enemy agents, and to bolster the profitability of rice dens. Did you know that if you put Metsuke into provinces with markets, that the growth and economy of those provinces goes up? They can also protect your Daimyo or top-tier generals from being assassinated by enemy Ninja; and I highly recommend putting one in each of your core armies. Trust me: it sucks to lose your five-star general to a suspicious death on turn 60, especially when the game auto-saves at the beginning of each turn. Bye-bye Stand and Fight. Bye-bye Ashigaru Commander. Farewell Night Attack. Hello sadness.
For Sieges, have ranged superiority from the off-set if you're the attacker. Six bow ashigaru will melt most armies inside of their fort. On my Chōkosabe play-through, each unit had 200+ kills by the end of the siege. I do not find siege battles intimidating when I know I'm coming in with more archers than the opposing army, because I can and will surround them, can and will out-trade them, and then when they're weak and tired from trying to avoid my arrows, that's when I send my yari ashigaru in to take advantage of their failing strength. One unit of bomb throwers on the gate of your choice will blow it to shreds and allow spear-wall after spear-wall to penetrate their defences. The A.I. will blob the gate: perfect, that allows your remaining archers to menace them. If the enemy army has bow samurai, do not attack the wall they're stationed at. You will get fucked because the A.I's bow samurai is always god-tier, and yours fling kaka in comparison until they're high ranked. Instead, place an infantry reserve unit just out of range of that wall, and the A.I. will station most of their archers at it and... wait, allowing you to haemorrhage the fort from an opposing angle. Don't bother moving the reserve unit into range of the enemy archers, not necessary, they'll stay there as long as you stare back at them menacingly. Target priority is: generals, infantry, bows. If you kill them off in that order, you can afford to get impatient and rush the walls, because bows can't stop yari ashigaru from getting in. Finally, if your bomb throwers have spare ammo, launch it at any stubborn archers manning the walls: they will quickly get the point and relocate elsewhere.
Toppeth-Tippeth: Bomb throwers can follow your yari ashigaru through the main gate, and toss bombs into the enemy's ranks over the heads of your infantry. I really didn't think this would work when I first tried it, because I figured the narrowness of the gate would cause my bomb throwers to report their line of sight as 'blocked': rendering them useless. Turns out no, actually, they're pretty happy to line themselves up on the ramp, swing their grenades, and launch them into the enemy blob. Yes, you will lose men: bah. But the enemy's morale will break long before you run out of reserves, especially with all their generals dead already. It's also fun as fuck. Boom... boom... boom.
Katana infantry fuck, but only under the right circumstances. I've found having one or two in reserve to be really advantageous. They are absolutely class for flanking or going in with the second wave during sieges. Fresh and eager, and up against tired defenders, they will melt. But inspired? They will fuck on everything. Best of all, katana infantry fight to the last man (because bushidō), and because the A.I. loves to field spears, they always have the advantage. The only drawback is that they're expensive to maintain, and therefore they should only be used this way in the early to mid game, if at all. Lastly, they're dumb-good in siege defences. Put them on the walls, away from the enemy archers, and whoever's coming up isn't coming up for long. I never have to worry about the walls I've assigned my katana to. They're just too good at holding the battlements due to their superior melee stats.
Once your armies have been fielded, hold an economy of around 500/1000 koku. If you don't use it, this will just keep adding to your war chest. It's not a lot, but in three or four turns you will accumulate enough wealth to put together an ashigaru army in a pinch, or bribe an ally to join a war. \Smacks lips.* Nice.*
You can body block stacks from entering your territories and delay them for at least three turns before they can reach your capital. The way you do this is by taking a single unit of yari ashigaru, placing it on a choke point on the campaign map, and then when the enemy is forced to attack it, you retreat. And then you play this game with the enemy's avatar until you've rallied your forces. You can also do this by inciting a rebellion stack. This is a big dick move, and has saved my ass many'a time. If you also have Ninja, you're laughing. It'll be five turns before the enemy can get to you. In five turns I can throw an expendable army at them from the god-damn barracks.
In field battles, do not use all your units at once. By this, I mean don't commit everything to one assault. Put four ashi' up to take the enemy charge. Flank with two ashi' on either side. Move your archers around. Harry them with your cavalry. And if you have samurai, use them to take out the key players. Commit in units, not in bulk. Yes, your main line will be chewed apart while you adjust, but who cares? You can recruit two/three ashigaru next turn. Expend the expendable, preserve your veterans. If your initial commitment breaks and surrenders... good! Now the enemy has to reform and turn around: usually into a line of no-dachi. Banzaiii!!!
If your objective is to win every battle with no casualties, start praying. Most sieges on Legendary end up in most of my army routed, and only my generals and a single unit of tired yari ashigaru left, with all my archers either out of ammo, or about to be. I always lose two units to critical losses, but then I can always recruit them back next turn. The rest of my army limps back to rejoin me another day, despite taking severe losses from enemy archers/the gate. Game's pretty forgiving when you commit to siege battles, use that to your advantage.
You can force the enemy to attack your main army by putting it on a choke-point on the campaign map. The A.I. will have to come through you to get what it wants. Sadly, the A.I. can also be a huge puss', calculate unfavourable odds, and never bother to attack you as you straddle the border to your territory like an asshole, forever. In this case, either go into ambush stance, or make a play. Defensive battles in the field are preferable to attacking, always. The A.I. will come to you, and you can choose anywhere on the map to make your stand. This leads to easy and fun battles, even on legendary, where you can set-up your men in ranks on hills, between valleys, in villages, and around bridges. Battles where you're on the attack always end the same way: by baiting and switching, which is not fun (... to me.)
I was wrong in my previous iteration of this guide about Katana Cavalry — Katana Cavalry do fuck on single player. They're absolute killing machines, actually. Not a game goes by where my Katana Cavalry don't rack up 400+ kills each. The way this is achieved is by waiting until all enemy units are engaged, then flanking with your cavalry. After that, leave them in. They are not charge units. They are sure, steady killers. Let them have their fun. Only pull them out if they're directly engaged by spears. The best upgrade you can give them is +2 armour, also.
Light Cavalry should always be your top killers on the field in the early-mid game. If you're not leaving those early battles with 200-300 kills per Light Cavalry unit, you're doing something wrong. Adjust your game accordingly.
Bow samurai are great on castle walls, but questionable in the field. I'd rather have two units of bow ashigaru any day of the week.
Yari Samurai are okay, but I always disband them on turn 1, then use the additional income to recruit other, cheaper spears. The enemy cavalry runs at your line during deployment, they're so dumb. Don't waste money on fielding a unit that's built to counter something that tends to counter itself.
For extra income, you can sell military access, but do so strategically. On average, I can sell 5 turns for 500-750. 10 turns for 1250-1500. And 20 turns for 3000 koku++ upwards. I do this when I want to upgrade essential infrastructure, like gold mines. But you must be wary of doing this on legendary, as you create a dialogue with potential enemies that wraps you up in red tape should you decide to attack them before the peace-bond made between you runs out. And sometimes it can take a very long time for this to happen (30+ turns if you settle for a 20 turn deal). This is huge because if you decide to attack before the timer runs out, then you'll suffer from diplomacy penalties with all the other clans you've come into contact with so far. On some campaigns, this can really hurt you. e.g. Piss off the Hojo as Oda, and Takeda will march on you early (because he's programmed to want your territory). That's not good, really not good. Likewise, as Shimazu you may want Tachibana or Chōkosabe on your side to buffer the northern clans. Well, not if you go cheesing Ito and betraying alliances with the Otomo. If you act the prick on legendary, you're asking for trouble. If your diplomacy window reads hostile, hostile, hostile, and you're not the Ikko-Ikki or a Christian clan, then you're doing something wrong. The game sets you up with natural enemies and natural allies, but you can break the mechanics and side with clans who're designed to inherently hate you, as long as you keep their attention fixed elsewhere via correct use of military access. Beware, selling military access to aggressive clans will cause them to come into your territory and devour your vassals, forcing you to make awkward decisions; and I'm certain you didn't just sell Date military access so that he could come and cause issues for you left and right: so, better to avoid this altogether. Be cautious about the fronts you're engaging with, TL;DR.
Vassals are worthless, even as buffers. You can't sell them military access and most of the time you can't encourage them to wage war, and if they can't be depended on as allies, then they're useless as allies. And they will betray you, they'll betray you because the game makes it impossible to keep them happy because you're demanding military access from them in return for protection, when they should be the ones protecting you. Only they don't because they're fucking dumb and can't be coerced into attacking who you want them to attack. So, don't take the settlements you don't need, and occupy them peacefully if you do.
Which brings me to ONAH! ... Honor is very important (unless you're the Ikkō-ikki or the Ōtomo). Low honor causes rebellions in your back lines. Low honor means clans hate you :-). Low honor makes it so that when you take a new city, the new city will whine turn after turn unless you have a general with the '-6 to resistance' trait, really good Metsuke, or a spare army to shut them up. (Psst. Recruiting men just to put down rebellions means less koku and negative economic growth.) This game literally makes you pay for your mistakes. There aren't many clans that can afford to be honour-less on legendary, not unless you want stacks of pissed-off armies marching into your territory every couple of years. Did you know that if you gift 150 koku to your super-powered feudal overlords, you get +3 to your diplomatic relations with them? Do this every other turn and you'll have +20 in no time. +20 is enough to dissuade them from attacking you: as long you have an active trade deal going and are giving them plenty of military access.
Be in it for the long game. Let others weaken your enemies for you, it is not so good to wage war before you are sure that you have the advantage.
Special shout-out to these units for being worth the koku: Yari Ashigaru (150+ kills on average). Bow Ashigaru (100+ kills on average). Naginata Warrior Monks (250+ kills on average), Katana Cavalry (350+ kills on average), Katana Infantry (200+ kills on average), Kisho Ninja (150+ kills on average). Tadakatsu's Tetsubo Warriors (200+ kills on average).
On Siege Defence, Matchlock Ashigaru are God.
Have fun. Legendary's great because it is fast-paced and consistent. You'll rarely have more than a couple years of peace, enjoy it while it lasts.
One last battle tip: use the terrain. Even a slight incline gives your ashigaru an advantage. A slight incline for the enemy marks your death. Zoom in, check where you are actually positioning your forces, and do not make the mistake of fighting on fatal ground. The reason why I lose so many armies to inferior opponents is because I think the A.I. is ha-ha dumb. It is ha-ha dumb. But it is also committed to attacking. If you march onto unfavourable ground, and you allow the enemy to attack you on it: his strategy is superior. Watch as your lines break. Then zoom in afterwards and realise: you just marched your entire army onto some really weird and obnoxious inclines that made holding the line difficult for your ashigaru. Woopsy. 'Woopsy' on legendary could cost you the campaign.
Good luck, my dudes. Great game +10 years on, and still one of my all time favourites!!! Wahaha!

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